Weather 
There is a saying in Brussels: in a legislative term, you spend the first year thinking about what you want to do, the second year announcing it, and the third to fifth years actually doing it.
ADVERTISEMENT
ADVERTISEMENT
By that logic, this is von der Leyen’s last real window to unveil big initiatives she might still see through before she leaves office. So, what made the cut, and what won’t? Let’s dive in.
Three tipping points are shaping von der Leyen’s speech: climate change turning from forecast to lived reality after devastating wildfires and heatwaves, AI technology moving faster than anticipated, and the industrial competitiveness drive intertwined with relations with China.
On climate, von der Leyen will have to walk a tightrope between conservative lawmakers pushing for adaptation – with improved preparedness for natural disasters and closing the insurance gap – and progressive MEPs demanding she stay true to the mitigation drive of the Green Deal with an eye for international climate diplomacy.
On artificial intelligence, she will need to balance the risks of frontier AI models progressing at neck-breaking speed – like job losses, cybersecurity, and loss of control – against the potential benefits of wider technological uptake.
On the economy, beyond the usual nods to competitiveness, expect references to cutting dependence on energy imports and boosting the EU’s clean tech sector, as the war in Iran pushes energy prices higher.
On China, with an October deadline looming for Beijing to make trade concessions in talks with Brussels, von der Leyen is unlikely to pre-empt the negotiations, but could send a strong signal about what happens if they collapse.
Ukraine will also feature prominently, with the Commission bracing for Kyiv to endure a brutal winter as Russia intensifies its campaign of ballistic missiles and jet-powered drones against civilian infrastructure.
More broadly, Russia’s ongoing campaign of sabotage and drone incursions across Europe — the attempted attack in Leipzig its most prominent example — is set to draw strong condemnation, as hybrid threats tip into kinetic reality.
On sanctions against Moscow, a 22nd package is in the works but unlikely to be ready for announcement. Instead, expect von der Leyen to double down on enforcement, pointing to ways of shutting down circumvention.
She’ll also give an extensive preview of an upcoming proposal, due on Thursday and leaked for you by yours truly, to restrict under-15s’ access to social media and video-sharing platforms.
Canada will be the elephant in the room: Mark Carney’s arrival in Strasbourg could steal von der Leyen’s thunder when he addresses the Parliament on Thursday. Expect some opening remarks on bringing Canada as close to the EU as possible, short of full membership that is prevented by the treaties.
Finally, on migration, von der Leyen will focus on implementation of the new migration pact, touting the recent drop in EU asylum applications, while pledging to ramp up the bloc’s crisis management capacity — incidentally, EU border agency Frontex is due for a review later this year.
Migration remains a raw nerve for von der Leyen’s centrist coalition in the aftermath of the Ceuta crisis, after a plenary debate on Tuesday turned into a shouting match between right-wing and left-leaning MEPs.
In this climate, references to the controversial proposal to finance return hubs in third countries with EU money are unlikely to feature, given that member states are already entangled in a complex negotiation on the bloc’s next long-term budget.
Still, expect the unexpected. Von der Leyen likes to drop a surprise or two, jealously guarded until the very last moment — case in point, nobody saw last year’s proposal to suspend the EU-Israel Association Agreement coming.
NATO ‘committed and ready’ after shooting down drone over Lithuania
NATO stands “vigilant, committed, and ready,” Lithuania’s foreign minister said Tuesday, after an allied fighter jet destroyed a drone that crossed into the country’s airspace from Belarus — the latest in a string of aerial incursions testing the alliance’s eastern border with Russia.
Kestutis Budrys credited the interception to the strength of collective defence, thanking the allies whose air presence, he said, protects Baltic skies and reinforces regional security.
But the message lands beyond Vilnius: as Russia’s war on Ukraine grinds on, the alliance’s eastern members are increasingly treating airspace violations — deliberate or not — as tests of NATO’s resolve, and Tuesday’s response was framed as proof the system works.
Simon Ormiston has more.
More from our newsrooms
ECB staff raise stability concerns about rumours of Lagarde’s early departure. In a letter seen by Euronews, European Central Bank staff members have questioned the institution’s stability in the face of rumours of the early departures of its president, Christine Lagarde, and board member Isabel Schnabel. Eleonora Vasques has more.
US threatens EU with retaliation over European preference in EU budget. In a document sent to EU legislators and seen by Euronews, the US has threatened the EU with retaliation if it does not scrap European preference provisions in its multiannual budget, Peggy Corlin reports.
Belarus concentrates forces near border with Poland and Lithuania in military drill. Belarus has begun four-day military exercises near its borders with Poland and Lithuania, the Belarusian service of Radio Free Europe reported, citing the defence ministry in Minsk. Mateusz Jaronski has the details.
We’re also keeping an eye on
- European Council President António Costa meets the President of the European Investment Bank (EIB) Nadia Calviño
- Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) debate the need for the EU to support Ukraine against Russia’s escalation
That’s it for today. Luca Bertuzzi, Vincenzo Genovese, Sasha Vakulina and Jorge Liboreiro contributed to this newsletter.
Read the full article here
