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I hit the wall again with baseball yesterday as I incorrectly thought that Paul Skenes and Zack Wheeler would pitch to a pitcher’s duel. Skenes gave up five runs in the second inning. Wheeler was better, but it wasn’t much better as he allowed four earned runs. Two top pitchers in the league combined to allow 11 runs. We still have a fairly strong slate today, so let’s find a winner in the Cardinals vs. Braves game.
The St. Louis Cardinals are putting together a strong year. I’ve brought up the halfway mark of the season in a few articles recently, and the Cardinals are above .500 for that checkpoint. The bad news for them is that they are still 8.5 games back of the Brewers in the division, and the Cubs are ahead of them. Plus, only the Reds are more than a game under .500 in the division. It is likely to be very complex trying to get into the postseason for all of these NL Central teams. However, it is too early to think about that; they just need to get every win they can.
Looking to position them for a win in today’s game and the series is Dustin May. In May’s first season with the Cardinals, he is 5-6 for the season with a 4.30 ERA and a 1.20 WHIP. The bad news for him and the Cardinals is that a road day game is the worst situation for May this season. He has a 6.81 day game ERA compared to a 2.05 night game. On the road, he is pitching to a 4.79 ERA compared to a 3.94 home ERA. His last game was against the Royals, and that was a road day game where he allowed six earned runs in two innings of work. In 70 at-bats against May the Braves have just 14 hits. Half of those hits have come from Mike Yastrzemski, so the rest of the team is 7-for-56 against him.
The Atlanta Braves started the season as basically the best team in baseball. They remain in control of their division, but the Phillies have been hot on their heels since they fired their manager. I suppose even before the season, we could’ve predicted that the Braves and Phillies would be the two best teams in the division. Perhaps some would’ve included the Mets, but for me, these were my two choices. The Braves are 50-34, and really don’t need to make moves at the deadline. They probably could just benefit from full health with the team.
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I think part of the reason that they are having today’s starter, Hurston Waldrep, go is because of some injuries to the team. Spencer Strider is on the injured list, and the Braves are still looking for a replacement for his production. Waldrep is making just his second appearance for the Braves this season. He only went two innings in relief on Friday against the Giants. He allowed two hits, four walks, and three strikeouts, so he was a bit all over the place. Perhaps it was nerves, but he needs to control the walks. He had a good season in 2025, starting nine games, throwing to a 2.88 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.
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The Cardinals are not a strikeout-prone team; they rank fifth in fewest strikeouts per game at just 7.73. Waldrep averages about a strikeout per inning over his career. It should be interesting to see if he can match that here. I don’t necessarily expect him to have a great game or go too deep into the game, but at +101, four strikeouts is worth a look.
I think the best bet here is to take the Braves through five innings, though. I like May, but he has shown a few times this year that he pitches poorly during the day. Athletes get into routines, and May just might require a full afternoon to get into his so he can pitch better at night. I don’t love Waldrep, but I think he can give a few solid innings, and the bullpen can handle the rest. Give me the Braves through five.
