Who would rule Iran if the Islamic Republic falls?

As anti-regime protests continue to spread across Iran and questions swirl about the durability of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s rule, a central question looms: Who would actually take power if the Islamic Republic were to collapse?

The answer, according to regional experts and Iranian opposition figures, is far from clear. It may depend less on ideology than on how the regime falls and whether Iran’s security forces fracture or hold.

Collapse matters as much as succession

Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the critical variable is not simply whether the regime collapses, but how it happens.

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“Despite being supreme leader, one has to wonder, especially post-war and with limited public appearances, how much Khamenei is directly governing the affairs of the country,” Ben Taleblu told Fox News Digital. He warned Western governments against backing a cosmetic transition that merely reshuffles elites.

“One thing I fear is the Western temptation for a Maduro-type or Egypt-type model,” he said, referring to scenarios in which entrenched security forces retain power under new leadership. “That will only be playing musical chairs at the top and will not provide the Iranian people a pathway for meaningful change.”

Ben Taleblu argued that Iran’s opposition faces a logistical challenge more than an ideological one: translating sustained street protests into organized political power before security forces reassert control.

The decisive role of security forces

Multiple experts agreed that Iran’s future hinges on whether the regime’s coercive apparatus, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the Basij militia and the regular military, remains intact.

Ben Taleblu said the key factor is whether segments of the security forces defect, refuse orders or fragment. “What has to be chipped away is the regime’s coercive power,” he said, adding that a transition would require sustained protests, economic strikes and cracks within security units.

Without that, analysts warn, Iran could see a scenario in which clerical figureheads disappear but real power remains in the hands of armed institutions.

“That’s the fear,” Ben Taleblu said. “If the state plays musical chairs, the street will not settle for it. That means a bumpier road ahead.”

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 Could the military take over?

Some analysts point to historical precedents, including Egypt, where the military stepped in amid unrest. Benny Sabti, an Iran expert at Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, said a military-led transition cannot be ruled out, but would be fraught.

“IRGC generals could theoretically attempt a coup,” Sabti told Fox News Digital, stressing that Iran’s military institutions are not monolithic. He distinguished between the IRGC, which he described as an ideological and asymmetric force, and the regular army, which he said is more professional and nationally oriented.

Sabti highlighted former armed forces chief Habibollah Sayyari as an example of a figure who has voiced limited criticism from within the system. Still, he cautioned that criticism alone does not make a leader and said charisma matters deeply in Iranian politics.

“There is a problem of charisma,” Sabti said. “In Iran, it is very important.”

Political prisoners and internal leaders

Despite international attention on jailed activists, experts are skeptical that Iran’s next political leadership would emerge from within the country’s prison system.

Ben Taleblu said decades of repression have made it nearly impossible to cultivate political leadership inside Iran. “What will come from within are the forces of revolution,” he said. “Political leadership has to be built outside.”

Sabti echoed that view, saying freed prisoners would likely become part of a broader system rather than dominant leaders.

“There won’t be leaders coming out of prison,” he said. “They will be part of a new system, but not charismatic leaders.”

The exiled opposition and the Pahlavi question

Supporters of Reza Pahlavi say he is emerging as a focal point for opposition mobilization amid escalating unrest. On January 8, Pahlavi publicly called on Iranians to chant at 8 p.m. from their homes or in the streets and his aides said large crowds responded across multiple cities, including Tehran, Mashhad, Isfahan, Ahvaz and Tabriz.

Those close to Pahlavi describe him as advocating a secular, democratic Iran committed to human rights, while rejecting claims that he is seeking to restore the monarchy. Pahlavi has repeatedly said the form of Iran’s future system should be decided by the people through a free constitutional process.

“My role is not to tip the scales in favor of either monarchy or republic,” Pahlavi said. “I will remain entirely impartial in the process to help ensure that Iranians finally have the right to choose freely.”

Banafsheh Zand, an Iranian-American journalist and editor of the “Iran So Far Away” Substack, told Fox News Digital that Pahlavi is the only viable unifying figure capable of guiding a transition, a view strongly contested by others in the diaspora.

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“The only person who can see this through is the crown prince,” Zand said, arguing that any prominent figure inside Iran would be swiftly eliminated by the regime. She dismissed alternative opposition figures as lacking legitimacy inside the country.

Zand said chants supporting Pahlavi during recent protests reflect genuine sentiment, not fabrication, though such claims are difficult to independently verify amid internet shutdowns and state censorship.

Some experts caution that while Pahlavi has visibility in the West and among parts of the Iranian public, he remains a polarizing figure, particularly among Iranians wary of monarchy or external influence.

Rajavi and organized opposition groups

Another long-standing opposition movement, the Mujahedin-e Khalq, led by Maryam Rajavi, has received backing from some senior U.S. political figures from across the aisle over the years, including former Vice President Mike Pence, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Rudy Giuliani. 

In a statement to Fox News Digital, Rajavi said change “will not come from outside Iran, nor will it be delivered by the will of foreign capitals,” arguing that only an organized, nationwide resistance can overthrow the Islamic Republic.

Rajavi pointed to the People’s Mojahedin Organization of Iran and its “Resistance Units” as the core force behind recent uprisings, claiming they have played a decisive role in organizing protests and confronting security forces at the cost of heavy casualties. She said the National Council of Resistance of Iran does not seek power for itself, but instead proposes a six-month provisional period following the regime’s overthrow, culminating in free elections for a constituent assembly to draft a new constitution for a democratic, secular republic.

“Once established, all authority will be transferred to that Assembly, which will both select the provisional government and draft the constitution of the new republic,” Rajavi said. “Gender equality in all its facets, the separation of religion and state, autonomy for Iranian Kurdistan and many other urgent matters have been ratified in detail by the NCRI.”

Rajavi also cited what she described as broad international backing for the NCRI’s platform. Critics and analysts interviewed by Fox News Digital dispute the group’s level of support inside Iran. Sabti said the MEK’s history of violence in the 1980s and its rigid ideology have alienated younger Iranians.

Speaking to an NCRI conference in Washington D.C. last November, Pompeo pushed back against critics, stating “A thriving, democratic, popular government in Iran—not a theocracy, not a monarchy, not an oppressive regime. This will be a great thing for the entire world. We are waiting for that day, and it will be a blessing to us all.”

Ben Taleblu also warned against Western governments “playing favorites” among exiled factions, saying legitimacy must ultimately come from inside Iran.

No clear successor and a long road ahead

Despite intense speculation, experts agreed on one point: there is no clear successor waiting in the wings.

“We are not there yet,” Sabti said, noting that Khamenei remains alive, and the security forces have not fractured.

Ben Taleblu described the moment as a marathon rather than a sprint, warning against simplistic narratives about regime collapse.

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“This is about getting the best bridgehead to a post-Islamic Republic Iran,” he said, “so that the forces of revolution inside can finally become voters and choose their own fate.”