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Serbia is experiencing a monumental political shake-up but it looks more like a calculated strategy from a politician who has dominated Serbian politics since 2012.
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For over eighteen months, student-led demonstrations have shaken Belgrade. This powerful protest movement erupted after a tragic railway station canopy collapse in Novi Sad killed sixteen people, exposing, according to students and opposition parties, systemic state corruption.
And Vučić is launching a tactical pivot. Barred constitutionally from seeking another presidential term in 2027, experts expect him to return to power by running for prime minister instead.
He gambles that snap elections will consolidate his rule and he has strong cards. According to an agency Faktor Plus, local polls place his party at 47% voter support and the student movement at just under 31%.
He routinely brands the student activists as manipulated foreign agents out to destabilise the country. Simultaneously, he pledges to accelerate European Union membership goals while fiercely protecting traditional alliances with Moscow and Beijing.
However, this geopolitical tightrope is becoming incredibly expensive.
The EU is currently weighing a critical decision to slash up to 1.5 billion euros in development funds. Brussels is highly alarmed by laws that strip judges of their independence, violent police crackdowns on student rallies, and constant state interference in independent newsrooms.
As the biggest financial backer of the country, the EU provided over half a billion euros in non-repayable grants between 2021 and 2024. In fact, official figures from Belgrade reveal that total EU funding and investments have surpassed 7 billion euros since 2000.
For a long time, Vučić has aimed to appease Brussels just enough to safeguard that cash without sacrificing his eastern allies. It now seems the presidency will change hands, but the main force of Serbian politics has no plans to retire from the political stage.
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