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The U.S. strike on Venezuela has renewed focus on the country’s oil sector, which includes some of the richest crude reserves in the world.
“We’re going to rebuild the oil infrastructure, which will cost billions of dollars, it will be paid for by the oil companies directly. And we’re going to get the oil flowing the way it should be,” President Trump said in a public address on Saturday following the attack, in which the U.S. captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife.
Here’s what to know about Venezuela’s oil industry.
How much oil does Venezuela produce?
Venezuela, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, produces relatively little crude compared with other leading oil-producing nations. The country produces roughly 1 million barrels of crude oil per day, less than 1% of global output, according to OPEC data.
Venezuela’s oil production topped 3 million barrels per day in the early 2000s, but it has fallen sharply in recent decades due to declining investment and the impact of U.S. sanctions. Because of U.S. political pressure, Venezuela today exports most of its oil to China, according to Reuters.
By comparison, the U.S. — the world’s largest oil producer — churns out 13.5 billion barrels per day, according to the Energy Information Administration. Saudi Arabia, the world’s No. 2 oil exporter and leading OPEC producer, pumps an estimated 10 million to 12 million barrels, while No. 3 Russia produces 9.4 million.
Francisco J. Monaldi, director of the Latin America energy program at Rice University, predicted it would take at least a decade — and investments of more than $100 billion — to rebuild Venezuela’s oil infrastructure and lift production to 4 million barrels per day, which is well above its historical production levels.
But doesn’t Venezuela have more oil in the ground?
Yes, Venezuela is estimated to have the world’s largest proven oil reserves, with more than 303 billion barrels — that represents roughly 17% of the total global oil supply, OPEC data shows.
“The bottom line is that the size of the reserves is only paralleled by the ones in the Middle East, in the Persian Gulf and Canada’s reserves,” Monaldi told CBS News.
Venezuela’s reserves top second-ranked Saudi Arabia’s 267 billion barrels, and are more than six times the U.S.’s reserves. Most of Venezuela’s untapped oil is located in what is known as the Orinoco Belt, a roughly 21,000-square-mile area that stretches across the country’s northeastern region.
Are American oil companies already operating in Venezuela, and does the U.S. restrict the country’s oil industry?
Only one U.S. oil company operates in Venezuela today: Houston-based Chevron, which now accounts for 25% of Venezuelan oil production.
“No other major Western player produces any significant amount,” Monaldi told CBS News.
Other American energy giants, including Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips, withdrew from Venezuela after former President Hugo Chavez nationalized private foreign oil interests starting in 2006.
Since 2005, successive U.S. presidents have imposed a range of sanctions on Venezuela, including its oil sector, for what American officials have said is the country’s failure to crack down on drug trafficking and terrorism, along with alleged human rights abuses.
Under former President Joe Biden, the U.S. in 2019 also froze the assets of Venezuela’s state-owned oil company, Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), and barred Americans from doing business with the enterprise.
Most recently, the Trump administration imposed sanctions on four companies and associated oil tankers that it said have ties to Venezuela’s oil sector.
Earlier in December, Mr. Trump called for a “total and complete blockade” on all sanctioned oil tankers that enter or leave Venezuela, and the U.S. seized two sanctioned vessels.
Chevron can maintain its presence in Venezuela under a waiver granted by the Biden administration in 2022, when the U.S. faced soaring inflation and energy prices. President Trump extended that special license last year.
How could regime change in Venezuela affect oil prices?
Any significant disruption to global oil supplies could drive up energy prices around the world. Yet Venezuela’s limited crude production is likely to mute any immediate impact on oil prices, which fell modestly in afternoon trading on Saturday, according to FactSet.
Prices for U.S. oil saw a steep decrease in 2025, dropping roughly 20% and extending a decline over the previous two years. In trading on Friday, the price of West Texas Crude (the U.S. standard) fell to $57.32 a barrel, down from nearly $80 in January.
Other factors could limit any short-term impact on domestic energy prices. U.S. production of crude has surged in recent years, helping lower gas prices. The U.S. has also beefed up its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, according to the Energy Information Administration, another potential cushion for consumers and businesses from volatility in global oil markets.
“Global supply remains ample, Venezuelan production represents a small share of worldwide output and there’s no clear evidence yet of sustained disruption to physical flows,” Nigel Green, CEO of investment advisory firm deVere Group, said in an email.
Wall Street analysts expect relatively little impact when U.S. financial markets reopen on Monday.
“Investors have dealt with a series of ostensibly seismic geopolitical events for the last several years (Ukraine, Gaza, Iran, Libya, etc.), but none had a sustained impact on markets, and it’s unlikely the events in Venezuela will be any different,” said Adam Crisafulli, head of investment adviser VitalKnowledge.
Meanwhile, major economies around the world are growing at a rate expected to keep oil prices in check, given the current surplus in crude supplies and sufficient production capacity among key producers, experts note.
In the short term, an end to the U.S. blockade could even reduce oil prices, Monaldi said. “Venezuela was exporting about 800,000 barrels before the blockade. If those go back to the market, that eases pressures.”
However, a prolonged slump in Venezuelan oil production could affect some energy costs. For example, the country produces a form of crude suitable for making diesel, which is widely used in many industries.
As a result, removing Venezuela’s oil input from global markets could push up diesel costs in the U.S. and boost inflation, according to a recent analysis by the Atlantic Council, a nonpartisan group focused on global political and economic affairs.
“Limited price impact reflects where the barrels go and how much spare capacity exists. It doesn’t mean the risk is negligible,” Green said.
Will U.S. companies want to restart operations in Venezuela?
To boost its oil production, Venezuela will need to rely on private investors because its state-run oil company, PDVSA, is in financial ruin, Monaldi told CBS News. That could open the door for U.S. companies to reenter the market. With new investment, Venezuela’s existing infrastructure would allow the country to ramp up oil production relatively quickly, he added.
To be sure, any such investment is likely to hinge on political developments following the U.S. strikes and Maduro’s removal, said Monaldi, noting that Venezuela would need to offer commercial, fiscal and contractual incentives to lure American energy producers.
“Venezuela doesn’t have limits in terms of the resources,” he said. “It’s about the politics.”
In the short term, Chevron stands to benefit the most, given its existing footprint in Venezuela, according to Monaldi. Other U.S. companies that might bring business back to Venezuela include ConocoPhillips and Exxon, he added.
