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Gold has been on quite the ride over the last year, hitting record highs at one point in early 2026, only to fall notably in the months following. While gold prices have somewhat recovered since then, they’re still much lower than those record highs seen earlier this year.
That may be a good thing for investors, allowing them to buy into the gold market at a lower rate and avoid paying too much for their gold assets — something particularly important in a highly volatile market like today’s. But just how volatile can we expect the prices on gold bars and coins to be moving forward?
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Thinking about investing in gold bars and coins? Here’s where prices could be headed this fall.
If you’re planning to purchase physical gold, here’s what precious metals experts think will happen with gold prices this fall.
Gold prices will likely rise
Overall, experts think gold prices will be on an upward trajectory as we finish out 2026.
After all,”the structural drivers of gold prices haven’t changed much,” Brandon Aversano, founder of precious metals platform The Alloy Market, says.
“Central banks are still buying at record levels, inflation is high, and geopolitical conflict is widely present,” Aversano says.
Those conditions are unlikely to improve and, according to some, could even worsen temporarily.
“To borrow a phrase from Game of Thrones, ‘Winter is coming,'” says Hiren Chandaria, managing director at Monetary Metals. “The economic and geopolitical environment is likely to become more difficult before it improves. That is likely to encourage investors to look more closely at ways to protect and diversify their portfolios.”
That often means turning to gold, which is largely considered a smart hedge against inflation and a long-term wealth protector.
Still, the rise in gold prices probably won’t be significant — nor is it likely to reach those sky-high records seen earlier this year. A “reasonable” expectation is over $4,500 per ounce, says Brett Elliott, director of content at the American Precious Metals Exchange (APMEX), while Chandaria says $4,800 to $5,000 is possible.
“There’s an outside chance that gold rallies over $5,000 again, but the odds aren’t favorable,” Elliott says. “When we look at last year, gold rallied about $750 from the start of September to the end of December, but that was an extraordinary and historical event. Doing it again would be like catching lightning in a bottle twice.”
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There may be some ups and downs along the way
While experts all agree gold prices are likely on their way up, that doesn’t mean it’ll be smooth sailing getting there. In fact, most expect prices to be fairly volatile for the foreseeable future.
“The path is unlikely to be a straight line,” Chandaria says.
A lot of the potential ups and downs will come down to inflation. If inflation remains high or even rises, it could cause the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates. This increases the “opportunity cost of holding gold,” Chandaria says, and could put downward pressure on gold prices as a result.
As of the most recent numbers, inflation sits at 3.4%, down from the 4.2% a few months ago, but still well above the 2% goal the Fed aims for. While new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh has held off on saying a rate hike is in the cards, markets currently expect one. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, there’s currently about a 60% chance of a rate increase at September’s Fed meeting.
Still, nothing’s set in stone. And since Warsh has even floated the idea of changing how inflation is measured, anything could happen.
“Right now the Fed’s inactivity looks more like a game of chicken than an actual policy answer to inflation,” Elliott says. “There’s some reason to suspect they’ll change the inflation metric from PCE to something more favorable and declare victory without raising rates.”
The bottom line
While there may be some ups and downs this fall, the overall trajectory for gold looks promising, so as long as investors treat gold as a longer-term asset and not a short-term holding, the conditions are good for investing in the precious metal today. In fact, those on the fence might want to pull the trigger soon — before prices can move again. “Consider taking advantage of bargain gold prices not seen since early fall 2025,” Thomas Winmill, portfolio manager at Midas Funds, says.
