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Americans facing high housing costs could see some normalization of prices in the years ahead, though a new report cautions that the timeline varies widely based on market dynamics and across different metro areas.
Redfin released an analysis last week which found that housing costs could hypothetically return to “normal” in the next five years if mortgage rates fall to 6% and home price growth remains steady at about 2.1%.
“When we say housing costs could return to normal within five years, we don’t mean prices are just going to fall off a cliff. We mean the gap between what homes cost and what people earn can close, mostly because incomes keep growing while price growth cools,” Daryl Fairweather, chief economist at Redfin, told FOX Business.
“That’s not a quick fix, and it won’t feel like one for buyers who are stuck waiting right now. But we anticipate the math will move in the right direction, and that matters,” Fairweather added.
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If mortgage rates were to stay around their current level of 7.5% and home price growth flattens, housing costs could normalize within about six years in a slightly longer timeline than in the scenario with lower rates and steady price growth.
If mortgage rates were to fall to 6% and price growth flattened, housing costs could return to normal in February 2029, while if prices were to decline 2% year over year with mortgage rates down to 6%, costs would normalize earlier in May 2028.
By contrast, if mortgage rates remain elevated between 7% and 8% and prices maintain their current annual growth rate of 2.1%, it could take 10 or more years for housing costs to return to normal levels.
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The report listed housing markets that could see a return to normalcy the soonest, with the fastest being San Jose, California; Austin, Texas; Oakland, California; Seattle, Washington; and Portland, Oregon.
About half of the metro areas Redfin analyzed could take at least a decade for housing costs to normalize, including many in the Northeast and Midwest, including Boston, the New York City area, Chicago and Milwaukee.
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Additionally, markets with home price growth rates above the national average are also likely to take at least a decade to normalize.
“Buyers shouldn’t try to time the market perfectly. If you find a home you can afford and plan to stay for a while, don’t let the headlines scare you away from it,” Fairweather said. “And if you can’t afford to buy yet, the trend is on your side.”
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