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The artificial intelligence (AI) boom is causing a fierce bidding war for some luxury homes in the San Francisco Bay Area, with dozens of homes selling more than $1 million above asking price last month.
Mike Simonsen, chief economist at Compass International Holdings, noted in a post on X citing the firm’s analysis of MLS data, that there were 44 homes sold in San Francisco that closed at a price at least $1 million above the final asking price. It showed the 44 transactions from June totaled over $60 million in total sales.
The June total marked the continuation of a recent trend after April and May each had a little more than 30 sales that closed at least $1 million over the asking price and totaled over $40 million, while March had 20 such sales that totaled about $30 million.
By contrast, from February 2024 through February 2026, some months saw zero home sales that closed $1 million above the asking price, and no month saw more than nine such transactions, which illustrates the rapid intensification of bidding wars in the Bay Area luxury market.
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Simonsen said in his post that the data was, “Absolutely BANANAS” and added that it “may be the most useful data in understanding the 2026 San Francisco housing market.”
Most of the homes sold at $1 million or more above their final asking price were sold in San Francisco’s 94114 zip code, which includes neighborhoods such as The Castro, Noe Valley and Dolores Heights.
San Francisco has long anchored the Bay Area’s tech economy, and Silicon Valley has surged amid the rapid rollout of AI software serving a wide range of consumer and business purposes. That has contributed to the uptick in demand for luxury homes in the city.
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Joel Berner, senior economist at Realtor.com, told FOX Business that the overall housing market in San Francisco is a “seller’s market” with buyers “competing over a smaller pool of listings, and homes are selling 18% faster than they were last year at this time.”
Across the overall market, the median listing price has actually declined 4.9% from a year ago to $1.137 million, though Berner noted that’s likely due to smaller homes coming onto the market.
“The luxury tiers (95th and 99th price percentile) of the SF market are seeing stronger price growth than the median,” he added.
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“This kind of uptick in buyer activity is consistent with a cash infusion on the buyer side, which we know is occurring as part of the AI boom and the IPOs of several of these companies with presences in the Bay Area,” Berner explained.
“Buyers have more money in their pockets, but they’re chasing after the same pool of homes as before as supply has not yet had the chance to meet demand.”
He added that because San Francisco is a “notoriously tough place to build new homes, with pricey and scarce land and high regulatory burdens for builders,” it is “unlikely that a new wave of construction comes to balance the market, so expect seller’s market conditions to continue and prices to start rising significantly.”
