Weather 
Americans who will be traveling this summer could see the cost of their summer vacations jump due to the spike in jet fuel prices.
The energy market has seen increased volatility since the Iran war began and the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz has been severely constrained by the threat of Iranian attacks, impacting the availability of a key input in making jet fuel.
Data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) Jet Fuel Price Index showed that the global price of jet fuel surged from nearly $100 a barrel late last year and at the outset of 2026 to more than $200 a barrel this month before easing back just below that threshold. As of last week, global jet fuel prices are up 105.1% from the prior year, while in North America they’ve risen 82.6% in that period, the lowest increase among regions in the report.
Those price increases have impacted air fares as airlines have looked to mitigate their increased costs through higher prices as well as other measures, such as hiking fees on checked baggage.
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Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at The PRICE Futures Group and a FOX Business contributor, said that jet fuel is the “wild card in the petroleum complex right now” and explained that “airlines are feeling the pain, especially those that have not hedged.”
“Higher jet fuel costs are a direct hit to margins. Some carriers are hedging aggressively; others are passing costs through with fare hikes,” Flynn said.
“Global air travel demand keeps growing structurally. Any sustained period of high jet prices risks some demand destruction in price-sensitive routes, but the baseline trend is still upward as economies normalize and international travel rebounds,” he added.
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Clint Henderson, principal spokesperson at The Points Guy, told FOX Business that, “New data from The Points Guy and our partner Points Path shows average domestic airfare for the summer is up a whopping 10-15% and international European trips are up 20%.”
“Still, my advice remains the same – book all your trips now and then hope for a return to stability in the oil markets,” Henderson said. “If the price of your trip drops, you can get a trip credit for the difference (as long as you didn’t book basic economy).”
Henderson encouraged travelers to book trips with points and miles to save money when the cash price of air fares is high, saying “better safe than sorry and with most points and miles programs (at least in the U.S.) you can cancel and get your points back.”
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Despite the higher prices for jet fuel and air fares, Henderson said that airlines aren’t noting major drops in demand as the “consumer remains resilient at least when it comes to travel,” though he cautioned that could change if inflation remains elevated.
“The other thing to watch for is more capacity cuts. This will be a much bigger story if oil prices stay high. Already we are seeing many airlines cut some routes,” Henderson added.
Flynn said that if tensions in the Middle East ease, it could lead to prices declining rapidly as jet fuel “remains one of the most geopolitically sensitive products in the barrel.”
“Any de-escalation in the Middle East could ease jet fuel premiums quickly. But persistent disruptions mean refiners will keep pushing yields toward middle distillates, supporting jet and diesel at the expense of gasoline cracks,” Flynn said.
