Senate control is a coin flip — and Democrats’ path runs through Trump Country

With six days to go until Election Day, the battle for control of the Senate appears to be a jump ball, with the road to the majority running mostly through states President Donald Trump won in 2024.

While the final Fox News Power Rankings ahead of the midterms revealed three key shifts in the direction of the Democrats, their hopes of retaking the Senate hinge on flipping seats in so-called Trump Country.

As they fight to hold their slim House and Senate majorities, Republicans are fighting political history, as the party in power in Washington has traditionally lost seats during midterm election years. The GOP also faces a challenging political climate fueled by persistent inflation tied in part to what polls show is an unpopular war with Iran and Trump’s increasingly negative approval ratings.

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Republicans currently control the Senate 53-47, with the Fox News Power Rankings rating the race for Senate control a toss-up.

Both parties are three seats short of a majority, according to the forecast. Democrats are favored in 48 seats and Republicans are ahead in 47. The GOP needs to hold 50 seats to retain control of the chamber, since Republican Vice President JD Vance is the tie-breaking vote in the Senate.

If Democrats ride a blue wave to victory by winning most or all of the competitive races, they could potentially come away from the midterms with up to 53 seats.

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But if Republicans have a good night and defy expectations, the GOP could hold the majority with up to 52 seats, according to the forecast.

Ohio is one of the three shifts Fox News made in the final Power Rankings. It shifted from toss-up to Lean Democrat. Meanwhile, South Carolina moved from Likely Republican to Lean Republican, and Mississippi from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.

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In red-leaning Ohio, former longtime Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is challenging appointed GOP Sen. Jon Husted in the race to fill the final two years of the Senate term then-Sen. Vance won in 2022.

In solidly Republican South Carolina, Democratic challenger Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, is taking on appointed Sen. Darlene Graham in the race to succeed the senator’s older brother, the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, who unexpectedly died in July.

And in Mississippi, a state Trump carried by 33 points two years ago, Republican Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith faces a challenge from Democratic District Attorney Scott Colom.

Kansas, another red state, remains Lean Republican in the final Power Rankings. GOP Sen. Roger Marshall is facing a rough re-election as he battles Democrat Adam Hamilton, a pastor.

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Republicans are also playing defense in Alaska, Iowa, Maine and Texas, which are all rated toss-ups in the Power Rankings.

In red-leaning Alaska, GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan faces former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola. In Republican-controlled Iowa, GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson and Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek are battling to succeed retiring Republican Sen. Joni Ernst.

Longtime Republican Sen. Susan Collins is fighting for re-election in blue-leaning Maine against Democratic challenger Troy Jackson, a former state Senate president. And in red-leaning Texas, state Attorney General Ken Paxton is locked in an expensive and contentious showdown with Democratic state Rep. James Talarico in the race to succeed longtime GOP Sen. John Cornyn, who was ousted by Paxton in a combustible Republican primary.

Republicans hope to go on offense in Michigan, the fifth state listed as a toss-up in the Power Rankings. Former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers is taking on Abdul El-Sayed, the Democrats’ nominee, in the race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters.

The GOP is also trying to flip Senate seats in two blue states listed as Lean Democrat.

In New Hampshire, former Republican Sen. John E. Sununu is facing off against Rep. Chris Pappas, a Democrat, in the race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.

Meanwhile, in blue-tilting Minnesota where Democratic Sen. Tina Smith is retiring, Republican nominee Michele Tafoya, a former longtime NBC sportscaster, is taking on Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, a Democrat.

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With less than a week until Election Day, there are still plenty of undecided votes.

“In Alaska, Iowa and Kansas, three states with recent high-quality polling, an average of 10% of voters say they haven’t decided who they will support or won’t support the major candidates,” noted Remy Numa, a Fox News contributor who steers the network’s Power Rankings.