Russia's escalatory threat upends EU debate on direct talks

The prospect of engaging directly with Russia to end its war on Ukraine has once again faded as foreign affairs ministers of the European Union gather in Cyprus amid Moscow’s explicit threats to hit diplomatic missions in Kyiv.

The idea of direct talks, which has been on and off the political agenda since January, gained momentum earlier this month after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, frustrated by the White House’s heavy focus on the Middle East, asked Europeans to speak with “one common voice” and appoint a designated envoy.

The plea led to various names, such as Finnish President Alexander Stubb, European Council President António Costa, former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, being floated for the high-risk job.

But the debate took a new turn after Russia’s large-scale air strikes over the weekend, which destroyed residential buildings, supermarkets, schools and energy facilities across Kyiv. The deadly assault included a hypersonic Oreshnik ballistic missile.

In the aftermath, the Kremlin called on diplomatic missions and international organisations to leave the Ukrainian capital “as soon as possible”. The message was seen as a direct threat against European representatives on the ground.

In response, Germany, France, Spain, Poland, the Netherlands and Estonia, among others, summoned the Russian ambassadors to convey their outrage.

These developments set the tone for the informal meeting of foreign affairs ministers in Cyprus, which begins with a dinner on Wednesday and continues on Thursday.

It is “kind of hard to speak with someone who wants to kill you,” said an EU official.

In Brussels, Russia’s escalation of the narrative and large-scale bombing have been interpreted as a result of significant setbacks on the battlefield, where Ukraine’s counteroffensive has scored major gains since the beginning of the year.

A diplomat noted that talking about names at this stage was “simply stupid”.

A second diplomat stressed that first, it had to be understood whether a specific envoy was at all needed; secondly, at which level the negotiations should be held; and thirdly, on what basis the EU should negotiate.

High Representative Kaja Kallas, who has repeatedly voiced scepticism about direct talks with Russia, will attempt to bring ministers towards a common position.

In a paper Kallas circulated with EU governments earlier this year, a tentative common position included having a complete ceasefire during the peace talks, a reciprocal withdrawal of troops from the warzone, no formal recognition of occupied territories, and setting up a tribunal to prosecute war crimes.

Although no fundamental changes have been made to this initial position, following Kallas’ visit to Moldova earlier this month, there is a growing understanding that the separatist region of Transnistria should also be considered as part of Europe’s security.

For the first time, the bloc’s position on potential negotiation talks with Russia will be on the table of foreign affairs ministers, even if for an informal discussion.

Diplomatic sources underline that the point of the exercise is not to obtain a formal negotiating mandate, but to move all capitals in the same direction and be prepared for when the time of formal negotiations comes.

“The only language Putin understands is the language of force and strength,” Ukraine’s former Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk told Euronews.

“What is needed for Ukraine and for everyone in Europe is to realise that Putin will react only if we do our best to drain his economy, his military, and his political influence.”

Expectations for a breakthrough are low, given the entrenched divisions among member states, some of which do not want to engage with Moscow directly and prefer to ramp up economic sanctions. Russia’s escalatory rhetoric further complicates the picture.

Even France, a vocal proponent of engaging with Moscow, has cautioned that the present circumstances are not appropriate.

Instead, Thursday’s meeting is seen as an opportunity for ministers to speak their minds freely and pave the way for a summit of EU leaders in mid-June, where the question of whether to end Russia’s diplomatic isolation is expected to be discussed.

Besides Ukraine, foreign ministers will discuss the situation in the Middle East, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing efforts to draft a security strategy.

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