Reporter’s Notebook: Congress dodged a fall shutdown, but the real fight looms

“And all at once, summer collapsed into fall…” – Oscar Wilde

Congress certainly collapsed into fall this year. It lacked the usual mayhem of an imminent government shutdown for the first time in years. The government is usually only funded through September 30, the end of the federal fiscal year. Lawmakers solved that fiscal riddle early.

So the beginning of fall in Congress is usually anything but enjoyable. Others are devouring cobbler, enjoying spiced pumpkin lattes and viewing leaves of amber. When a government shutdown looms, the infernality of summer continues to stew on Capitol Hill. Imagine simmering political temperatures mixed with boiling urban concrete and a soupçon of petrichor. That epitomizes the customary fall tension in the halls of Congress when lawmakers are on the precipice of a shutdown.

But this year is different.

TRUMP SIGNS GOVERNMENT FUNDING BILL, AVOIDING A SHUTDOWN AHEAD OF MIDTERMS

No shutdown. That’s a good thing, considering last year’s 43-day shutdown odyssey which crawled from October 1 into mid November. Everything is funded through December 11. So at least members and journalists can enjoy some of those autumnal fall trappings and dash to the pumpkin patch. That’s because we don’t know what’s going to await everyone for the next spending round in mid-December.

Lawmakers are recovering from the battle scars of last fall. So with the midterms approaching, no one wanted to return to the 2025 contretemps. The sides are willing to tussle over spending. But only after the midterms.

Does that mean a shutdown in December? Unclear.

If Democrats seize control of the House or Senate — or both — that could compel House and Senate Republicans to fund the government the way they want through the fall of 2027 right away. They won’t want an interim spending bill which punts things into early next year when Democrats may have power.

That said, if Democrats capture either the House or Senate, they will argue that the voters have spoken and it’s incumbent on them to decide how to spend taxpayer money next year. Under those scenarios, Democrats will push for a stopgap bill, hoping to tangle with President Trump in the early days of 2027.

The only thing which is known is that President Trump will in fact still be in office come January. This scenario could spark a shut down next year – if not December.

The reason? You still need 60 votes to clear a filibuster (and probably two) in the U.S. Senate. That means Republicans just can’t ram through whatever spending package they want. That may work in the House. And the GOP could even test the willingness of Reps. Jared Golden, D-Maine, and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez, D-Wash., to buck their party and assist passing a GOP-favored spending measure in the lame duck.

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But in the Senate, Republicans will certainly need the cooperation of at least seven Democrats to help them hit the 60 vote threshold. Those Democrats won’t be anxious to assist unless they won the majority and think they can apply their stamp on federal spending in the first quarter of next year.

This is the same problem which vexed the Senate during the shutdown of 2025.

The House passed a partisan spending bill to re-up all current funding on an interim basis. But Senate Republicans could never break a filibuster to lug that spending package across the finish line. The same circumstances may be true in December.

So could the 120th Congress begin in January with a shutdown?

It’s happened before. In fact, under very similar circumstances.

Democrats flipped control of the House during the 2018 midterms – two years into President Trump’s first term. But the President and outgoing House Speaker Paul Ryan, R-Wis., balked at a bipartisan spending package the Senate cleared just before Christmas that year. So the government closed. There was no way to resuscitate the Senate-approved package. So the 116th Congress began with a shutdown. It ran a then-record 35 days.

A possible government shutdown over spending disputes frankly serves as a symptom for what could be ahead if voters flip either or both bodies of Congress. Democrats will convulse at spending plans made by Republicans and the President. Plus, House Democrats likely add several progressives and Democratic Socialists to their ranks in November in solidly blue districts. Granted, those left-wing politicians won’t take office until January. But House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., must court the support of candidates Melat Kiros in Colorado along with Darializa Avila Chevalier and Claire Valdez in New York to win the Speaker’s gavel. Any missteps by the Democratic brain trust in the lame duck could ignite an internecine firestorm – before Democrats potentially seize the majority in January.

Republicans could face their own issues, too.

SCHUMER PREACHES AFFORDABILITY IN DEM MIDTERM PITCH WHILE SABOTAGING GOP FIXES FOR SOARING COSTS

Some rank-and-file Republicans are ready to move on from House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA). Granted, it is said that Johnson is Speaker as long as President Trump wants him in the job. But what’s not clear is what happens if Republicans lose control of the House. Will the President and others support Johnson for Minority Leader? Does Johnson want that job? What happens to House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) and House Minority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn.?

There are signals that House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, is interested in moving into leadership. Especially if the GOP loses the majority. Jordan is tight with President Trump. He lost a bid to become Speaker three years ago after Republicans unceremoniously ousted former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif.

If Republicans lose the majority, it’s not clear that some Republicans will back Johnson for the top GOP job in the House – regardless of what President Trump says. Some House Republicans will blame the President if the party loses the House. Especially since they believe he’s responsible for the toxic political climate they face right now. It’s unknown if a Republican party out of power might begin pushing back against President Trump, frustrated by the economy, tariffs, the price of gasoline and the war in Iran. Most GOPers have shown a reluctance to break with the President so far. But that could change if voters hand Congressional Republicans their head in the midterms.

We haven’t even raised the question about the future of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. – although the New York Democrat insists he isn’t going anywhere. But questions would emerge if Democrats don’t flip the Senate, considering that progressives and younger activists want to move on from the 75-year-old Schumer.

The same with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D. President Trump and Thune have never been close. If Republicans lose the Senate, would the President use that as a reason to call for the removal of the South Dakota Republican?

All of this will color those question about spending bills, maybe renewing FISA – or even getting the House to sync up with the Senate on the college sports bill during the lame duck Congress.

Summer collapsed into fall. Capitol Hill was bereft of the usual autumnal mayhem.

So go pick out some pumpkins. Sip a cinnamon spice latte. Prepare for trick or treating. Fall is here.

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But that autumn Congressional bedlam is only delayed. It will hit Capitol Hill after the election.