Real Or Fake: Are 3-0 Starts For Bills, Chiefs, 49ers, Vikes & Raiders Legit Or Mirage?

For five teams in the NFL, the 2026 season couldn’t have gotten off to a better start.

The Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers, Las Vegas Raiders and Minnesota Vikings are all 3-0 to start the season. For the Bills and Chiefs, their starts have become what we’ve grown accustomed to seeing in recent years. And after the 49ers’ upset of the Los Angeles Rams in Week 1, it isn’t a shock they’re 3-0, either.

But the Raiders and Vikings have been the biggest surprises so far this year, with each already recording multiple upset victories. And in Las Vegas’ case, it’s off to a 3-0 start after holding the No. 1 overall pick in this past year’s draft.

While a 3-0 start is certainly encouraging, it doesn’t guarantee a spot in the postseason. In fact, 33 of the 45 teams (73.3%) that started 3-0 over the last 10 years went on to make the playoffs, per FOX Sports Research. Four of the six teams that went 3-0 last season also went on to make the playoffs. 

So, if recent history carries into this year, at least one of the five 3-0 teams will miss the playoffs in 2026. Which team could it be? We determine which 3-0 starts are real or fake. 

Steven Ruiz: Very real. I know we say this every season, but this might be the best chance the Bills have at getting over the Super Bowl hump. 

It starts with Josh Allen, because of course it does. It appears he’s leveled up his game. The ball is getting out quicker, and he’s seeing coverages better than he ever has. The Bills offensive line remains strong, and the run game takes playmaking pressure off Allen. The pieces are in place for another MVP-caliber campaign for No. 17. 

But it’s the defense that really has me thinking this team has a real shot at hoisting the Lombardi Trophy in February. New defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard is installing a scheme that should give quarterbacks more issues compared to Sean McDermott’s static defense. And the emergence of defensive tackle Deone Walker as an interior menace, along with the continued ascension of Greg Rousseau, gives Leonhard a defensive line that will wreck game plans. 

The ceiling for the offense is as high as ever, and the defense’s ceiling is higher than ever in Buffalo. 

Ben Arthur: First of all, Patrick Mahomes is back from the torn ACL and LCL he suffered in December, and he’s off to a great start in 2026 — a 68.4% completion rate for 912 yards and seven touchdowns against just two interceptions with a 108.9 passer rating, plus 10 carries for 41 yards and another score. The two-time MVP should only get more comfortable as the season wears on and he’s further removed from knee surgery. 

But the biggest reason why the Chiefs are a true Super Bowl contender, and not just in the conversation with a healthy Mahomes, is because of running back Kenneth Walker III. The reigning Super Bowl MVP’s dynamic ability out of the backfield has opened up Kansas City’s offense in a way we haven’t seen in the Mahomes era. For years, we’ve been talking about how the Chiefs haven’t had a consistently dominant and available WR1 since the Tyreek Hill days, but Walker’s presence has allowed the Chiefs’ offense to be explosive without one. The attention he draws brings safeties down to the box, freeing up shots in the pass game. It’s a big reason why we see 37-year-old Travis Kelce (77.0 receiving yards per game) and wide receiver Rashee Rice (63.3) finding so much success. 

And then, of course, Walker is doing damage when he actually touches the ball. The former Seahawk is leading the league with 360 rushing yards and 34 missed tackles forced (next closest is the Lions’ Jahmyr Gibbs at 22), according to Pro Football Focus. 

The Chiefs currently rank second in total offense (416.3 yards/game) and tied for seventh in scoring (29.3). They’re also getting it defensively, ranking third in points allowed (16.7) and fourth in yards allowed per game (278.0). 

Between Mahomes, Walker and the highly effective units around them, Kansas City is absolutely in the Super Bowl conversation. 

Eric Williams: The 49ers lose key healthy bodies each week, but the same thing happens every year and head coach Kyle Shanahan patches enough holes to make it work. Edge rusher Nick Bosa, linebacker Fred Warner, wide receiver Ricky Pearsall, quarterback Brock Purdy and tight end George Kittle all missed games due to injury last season, but San Francisco still finished in the playoffs at 12-5.

This year, Purdy is the frontrunner for MVP and new defensive coordinator Raheem Morris hasn’t missed a beat replacing the departed Robert Saleh. And rookie running back Kaelon Black has been a nice backup for Christian McCaffrey, giving the All-Pro a break at times so he doesn’t break down at the end of the year.

The Los Angeles Rams were supposed to be the superteam leading the NFC West, but San Francisco overwhelmed them in Australia to start the year and have proven over the years they can keep it going, despite injuries.

Greg Auman: It’s cruel to make this a pass/fail. No team in the NFL has overachieved more than the Raiders have to be 3-0. Kirk Cousins has shown why it was smart to let Fernando Mendoza wait, and the defense has been a surprising spark. Linebacker Nakobe Dean has three forced fumbles and looks like a smart signing; rookie corner Hezekiah Masses has three interceptions in the last two games.

However, they’re in a division with the 3-0 Chiefs and 2-1 Broncos, and they still have four games against those two. And consider their next four games: vs. Chiefs, at Patriots, vs. Bills, vs. Rams. They could be a really good team and go 0-4 in those games. They will far exceed their preseason projected win total of 5.5 wins, and head coach Klint Kubiak has already changed the culture in a locker room that needed it. I just don’t know that it translates to even a wild card this season.

Here’s how to map it out: They have five games left against teams in the bottom 10 of the current FOX Sports Power Rankings: Browns, Jets, Chargers, Cardinals and Titans. Take four of those five and get two surprise wins in the other eight games, and you’re 9-8 and a wild card and one of the best turnarounds in the league, and there’s nothing fake about that.

Henry McKenna: Given the value of quarterbacks in this league, it says something when a team is winning without one. The win over the Bears was legit. Kyler Murray has been in and out of the lineup (and back in again). He has played just one complete game, and he hasn’t been spectacular. But that’s sort of the whole point. The idea was to let Murray ride the wave of the offense, starting as a guy who — at the very least — wouldn’t get in the way. (Hate to throw J.J. McCarthy under the bus, but that’s what he couldn’t figure out. His turnovers and outside-the-system decision-making cost him a job.) Murray is right where he needs to be to start the season: a modest system quarterback. He can grow into a role as a facilitator and — then maybe coach Kevin O’Connell will let the training wheels off when everyone is comfortable.

Ironically, we’ve spent the last few years talking about O’Connell and his quarterbacks. But it’s Brian Flores who really has this team firing. The Vikings’ defense has the second-fewest points per game allowed. They have the most sacks (14), led by edges Dallas Turner (3.5) and Andrew Van Ginkel (3) and linebacker Blake Cashman (2.5). Flores’ game plans are like an escape room for a quarterback. And I haven’t seen a quarterback solve it this year.