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Good morning. It’s Friday and I’m Mared Gwyn, writing in the early hours from Brussels.
There was a palpable shift in the mood music when EU leaders gathered over dinner here last night for talks on the future of the transatlantic relationship.
Despite relief at Trump’s sudden retreat from his tariff threats over Greenland, an autonomous Danish territory, the deep scepticism now shaping ties with Washington was evident.
“We believe that relationships between partners and allies should be managed in a cordial and respectful way,” António Costa, the president of the European Council, said. The EU’s foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, had earlier said ties with Washington had taken a “big blow.”
After years of talk of the need to reduce the EU’s reliance on the US, the reality now seems to have abruptly set in. “We know we have to work as an independent Europe,” European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said, calling on the EU to strengthen its “economic power”, diversify its supply chains and become more independent vis-à-vis the US.
An EU official said leaders made it clear that a “calm and quick response” was needed to dramatic escalations such as the one seen this week, which triggered frantic European diplomacy in a bid to avert a full-on trade war. Leaders also said they are well prepared for another major fallout if talks on Greenland stall. Our reporter Jorge Liboreiro has more.
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, asked last night whether she could trust Trump, first paused, then stuttered, in a telling moment. She finally replied: “We have to work together respectfully without threatening each other.”
She added that Denmark would engage with the White House on the issue of Greenland, but that the sovereignty of the Arctic island was off the table, something she pointedly described as a “red line”.
The New York Times reports overnight that the proposal under negotiation between the US, Denmark and Greenland involves American sovereignty over pockets of Greenland’s territory and a potential mining prohibition on adversaries such as Russia.
But NATO allies have not been made aware of the contours of any deal, Spain’s Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares told Euronews on Thursday, after the alliance’s Secretary-General Mark Rutte convened talks with Trump. Albares suggested the deal was cut bilaterally between Trump and Rutte: “It is the Secretary-General of NATO talking to one of the allies.” Watch.
EU has ‘serious doubts’ about Trump’s controversial Gaza Board of Peace
EU leaders have “serious doubts” over Donald Trump’s Board of Peace, including its “compatibility” with the UN Charter, but are willing to work with the US on the peace plan for Gaza, European Council President Costa has said.
The Board of Peace, inaugurated by Trump in Davos on Thursday, was originally intended to oversee post-war Gaza’s transition as part of the 20-point peace plan agreed last year, but has since raised major fears of scope creep that could undermine the mandate of the UN Security Council.
Leaders have also expressed concerns that the board fails to promote the two-state solution, which the EU sees as the only viable path to long-term peace for the region.
The inclusion of Russian President Vladimir Putin on the board also makes membership politically untenable for most EU countries while the war in Ukraine still rages. The Russian president has said he is willing to pay the $1 billion contribution that Trump has demanded for permanent membership on the board if the money came from Russian assets frozen in the US.
But as always with Gaza, the EU position is not clear-cut. Several leaders have also refrained from completely rejecting the offer in a bid to continue to appease Trump and avoid losing the opportunity to steer the transition in Gaza.
Italian Prime Minister and Trump whisperer Giorgia Meloni said earlier this week that although Italy’s constitution prevents it from immediately joining the board, it wouldn’t be a “smart choice” for Italy and Europe to “exclude themselves from a body that is nevertheless interesting.”
“We want this Board of Peace to be limited to this UNSC resolution as it was foreseen. So if it is narrowed down to Gaza, we can work with it,” the EU’s foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on Thursday.
Only two member states – Bulgaria and Hungary – have accepted their invitations to sit on the board, with both leaders attending its inauguration ceremony in Davos alongside Trump.
EU and US ‘close’ to agreeing roadmap for Ukraine’s post-war recovery
The EU is “close” to an agreement with the US for a Ukraine Prosperity Framework, a plan for the war-torn country’s development and reconstruction through 2040, Ursula von der Leyen told reporters last night.
The Commission chief presented the roadmap to EU leaders for the first time on Thursday evening, as first reported by Euronews, after it was discussed earlier during a meeting of EU ambassadors.
She said it represents “the collective vision of the Ukrainians, the Americans and Europe for Ukraine’s post-war future” and is shaped around the five pillars of:
- increasing Ukraine’s productivity through business-friendly reforms
- accelerating Ukraine’s integration into the EU single market
- scaling up investment, using instruments that already exist and have proven their worth, including the Ukraine Investment Framework, part of the €50 billion Ukraine Facility
- improving donor coordination, especially among G7 countries and other partners, and with the private sector
- strengthening fundamental reforms to reinforce the rule of law, anti-corruption efforts and to modernise public administration
Ukraine’s President Zelenskyy first spoke of the roadmap back in December, saying it would include several financial vehicles, and estimating at the time that the total cost of Ukraine’s reconstruction would be between $700 billion and $800 billion (€600 billion – €650 billion).
The roadmap would be implemented after a peace settlement. After a stagnant few weeks, talks are gaining new momentum, with Zelenskyy on Thursday announcing trilateral talks between Ukraine, the US and Russia in Abu Dhabi over the next two days.
Zelenskyy said last night that the document outlining the US’s security guarantees for Ukraine in the event of a peace deal was ready, but would be signed after the end of the war. Russian President Vladimir Putin meanwhile held four hours of talks with Trump envoy Steve Witkoff in Moscow.
Earlier on Thursday, Zelenskyy delivered a scathing speech in Davos, saying Europe “looks lost” and is living in “Groundhog Day”, describing a fragmented response to global crises from Greenland to the Middle East, as reported by our correspondent Sasha Vakulina.
Von der Leyen keeps markets guessing on Mercosur deal’s provisional launch
Von der Leyen said on Thursday that her institution has yet to decide whether to provisionally apply the contentious Mercosur trade agreement following talks with the bloc’s 27 leaders, our trade reporter Peggy Corlin reports.
The landmark deal with the Latin American Mercosur bloc was signed last weekend after EU countries backed it in a crucial vote. Its ratification, however, remains uncertain after MEPs voted this week to challenge the agreement before the European Court of Justice, effectively suspending the process and handing a win to opponents who argue it would create unfair competition for EU farmers.
The Commission – a strong supporter of the deal – still retains the option of launching a provisional application, effectively bypassing the parliament.
“The provisional application was raised by several leaders tonight, there is a clear interest that we ensure that the benefits of this important agreement apply as soon as possible,” von der Leyen told reporters after the EU summit, adding: “We have not yet taken a decision.”
Supporters of the deal, including Germany and Spain, are pushing for provisional application, arguing that shifting geo-economic realities make it essential to secure access to new markets and forge new alliances. But the EU executive could further escalate tensions with the parliament, the only democratically-elected EU institution, and risks antagonising France, a major opponent of the deal.
Tensions remain high after MEPs voted this week – by a narrow margin of 10 votes – voted to back a legal referral. “This is not serious, we are in a situation of geopolitical tensions and 10 votes send the deal to the Court of Justice,” a diplomat from a country supporting the agreement said, adding: “There is a lot of anger.”
On Thursday night, von der Leyen noted that procedurally the Commission can move ahead with provisional application as soon as one or more Mercosur countries complete their own ratification processes. “We will be ready when they are ready,” she said.
More from our newsrooms
NATO military planners ‘waiting for direction’ on Greenland framework deal NATO military planners said on Thursday afternoon that they have not yet received any direction regarding the framework deal agreed between the US and Denmark for Greenland, but stand ready to start planning as soon as they do so. Alice Tidey has more.
Risk of drones drifting into Finland’s airspace growing, intelligence chief says Europe is on high alert after a string of violations into NATO airspace, prompting leaders to agree to develop a “drone wall” to better detect, track and intercept drones. Gavin Blackburn has more.
French Navy intercepts sanctioned oil tanker in the Mediterranean sailing from Russia
The tanker was intercepted as part of a mission targeting the sanctioned Russian shadow fleet, officials said. Sophia Khatsenkova and Gavin Blackburn have the details.
We’re also keeping an eye on
- European Parliament President Roberta Metsola meets the President of Ecuador Daniel Noboa
- EU justice and home affairs ministers gather for informal talks in Nicosia, Cyprus
That’s it for today. Alice Tidey, Jorge Liboreiro, Maria Tadeo, Shona Murray, Lauren Walker, Peggy Corlin and Sasha Vakulina contributed to this newsletter. Remember to sign up to receive Europe Today in your inbox every weekday morning at 08.30.
We’ll be beack on Monday.
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