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Millennials planning for retirement may need to prepare for a vastly different real estate landscape.
According to new projections from National Association of Realtors (NAR) chief economist Lawrence Yun, the national median home price is on track to hit $1 million by 2050 — just as millennials reach the traditional retirement age.
“Essentially, in about 25 years the national median home price will be a million dollars,” Yun said at a conference in Washington, D.C., on Tuesday. “It may be hard to envision that, but back in 1990, the national median price was $90,000.”
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To illustrate the trajectory, Yun also noted that even historically expensive markets like San Francisco had a median home price of just $250,000 in 1990. The long-term forecast highlights a growing disparity between Americans who build home equity and those who remain in the rental market.
“Homeowners will continue to build wealth, while renters are simply spinning their wheels,” Yun said.
America’s median sales price for existing homes was nearly $430,000 in May, according to Realtor.com data, up more than 2% from the previous month. Meanwhile, Zillow lists the average U.S. rent across all bedrooms and property types at $2,006 per month, up $6 from the prior month.
Yun also commented on the state of the economy, explicitly stating that he does not forecast an economic recession for the U.S. in 2026. He predicted mortgage rates would remain relatively flat, averaging 6.5% throughout 2026. Existing-home sales are projected to grow 4% this year, rebounding slightly from a 30-year low in 2025, when elevated rates slowed market activity.
Additionally, he expects stable economic footing, projecting nationwide job gains to hit 400,000 for the year.
Also on the panel was NAR deputy chief economist and Vice President of Research Jessica Lautz, who described a “wonky market” where inventory performance varies widely — even between neighboring properties.
“You’ll list a home on the market, and sometimes it’ll sit for months. And sometimes it’s going to have multiple offers, and they can be next door to each other,” she said during Tuesday’s panel.
Despite overall housing affordability challenges, Lautz pointed out three specific buyer segments that remain highly active: baby boomers selling homes for the first time, young COVID-era buyers and lifestyle renters seeking larger backyards or additional living space.
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