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For those wondering about the state of play for oil prices, gasoline, and stocks, here’s what President Trump said this afternoon: “I think the war is very complete, pretty much. They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no Air Force.” And that America is “very far” ahead of his initial four-week to five-week estimated time frame.
Soon after the President’s statement, oil fell to $85 a barrel after topping $100 a barrel earlier in the day and stocks ended up rising more than 200 points.
And I have faith in him and his initial judgements, which have been superb. And I also have faith in the American people to stand behind Mr. Trump’s epic fury in order to change the course of history, and completely shift the international landscape and change the world’s balance of power in favor of America, the Western democracies, of course Israel, and our friends in the Middle East. I even saw a 52 percent favorable Rasmussen poll.
As I’ve said before, this is like the Berlin Wall coming down with President Reagan ending Soviet Communism. Or FDR ending fascism in World War II. And Mr. Trump ending ISIS in the first term, and now ending the barbaric terror state Iran, to finally conclude Iran’s 47-year forever war against America. A temporary blip in gasoline prices is a very small price to pay to achieve literally world-shattering results.
Mr. Trump is bending the arc of history toward freedom and prosperity. If you’re looking for economic impact estimates, there are a dime a dozen, and I wouldn’t put any confidence in any of them right now. Inflation, recession, stagflation.
I suppose it all depends on the duration of the war, which is unknowable, but it’s not going to be six months or twelve months or longer. Therefore, why bother to guesstimate?
We can say this factually, through the third quarter of 2025, according to OPEC, world oil production was 106.3 million barrels per day, more than world oil demand which was 105.5 million barrels per day.
If you take out a fifth of oil production because the Strait of Hormuz is not functioning, of course you have a dire Strait. But Mr. Trump is moving rapidly to reopen Hormuz with reinsurance guarantees and United States Navy protection. When? Probably a week or two, maybe less.
Iran will never stop this. And if they dare, it will make matters even more catastrophic for them. Hormuz will not stop history. Investors should look through this war and see the enormous prosperity that lies on the other side. And ordinary American working folks should celebrate the greatness of America.
