Weather 
Run your finger down the key races in the Real Clear Politics average. What you see is seven toss-up races, well within the polling error margin. One tie in Kansas. One big GOP win in Florida. And one Democrat win in Georgia.
Again, the toss-ups are well inside the error margin. This does not spell a Democratic blue wave in the Senate. I first heard this argument about 10 days ago listening to Ben Shapiro’s Daily Wire podcast, where he made this point. As Mr. Shapiro put it, if you listen to the mainstream press, the Dems are going to take the Senate 100 to 0. But that isn’t going to happen.
A couple of days ago, the Real Clear Politics polling analyst made a similar point: “the grim headlines for Republicans overlook how thin the margins are in most toss-up races, leaving the GOP a real path to keeping the Senate.” Real Clear Politics’ Senate map features eight “toss-up states, and Republicans need to win only four of them to keep control of the chamber.”
And I’m here to tell you that Senator Roger Marshall is going to hold his seat in Kansas. And Congresswoman Ashley Hinson will hold the Republican seat in Iowa. Whether he deserves it or not, the Lone Star State’s attorney general, Ken Paxton, is going to beat James Talarico, because Texas doesn’t believe in crazy people.
And the incumbent senator, Jon Husted, is going to keep Ohio in the red. Senator Susan Collins is going to win in Maine because she always does. And I refuse to believe Michigan is going to vote for Abdul El-Sayed, whose biggest sin is not just that he is a card-carrying socialist, or that he hangs out with Hasan Piker, though all that’s bad enough.
To be sure, though, he is going to push with other socialists for Medicare for All. And what that means is quite simply, if you like your health care plan now, and over half of Michiganders have employer-based health care, the socialists will not let you keep it. And it will cost the country more than $50 trillion. And they will attempt to raise taxes by some considerable proportion of that $50 trillion.
And that’s true for Mr. Talarico, and for Maine senate challenger, Troy Jackson. And oh yes, Peggy Flanagan, who is the deputy in Minnesota of Governor Tim Walz, the socialist fraudster, is going to lose to the GOP senate candidate, Michele Tafoya. Now, I’m the first to admit that not all these predictions are going to come true, but I believe Republicans are going to keep the Senate easily.
The House is a different story. And sure, I wished the GOP had communicated another big tax cut and large scale spending and anti-fraud budget reforms. Yet when the Democrats talk about affordability, that’s when I start giggling. They have no plan to reduce inflation, except President Biden’s 21 percent cumulative big-government socialism inflation.
And they will promise free this, free that, tax the rich, tax the middle, and at least $50 trillion for Medicare for all. And lord knows how much they’ll spend for their socialist, Green New Deal, climate change, open borders, and woke DEI policies. Let Mr. Trump and the GOP stay on message for the next 19 days, and they can yet do very well in the midterms.
