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Even if the Middle East conflict were to end today, its ripple effects risk creating the conditions for further conflicts to emerge, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) Administrator Alexander De Croo has told Euronews’ morning show, Europe Today.
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“The first measure [that must be taken] is to stop the war or at least come to some type of normalisation of the shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz,” the former Belgian Prime Minister said.
He cautioned that, even if the war ceased today, economic interventions are needed to avoid a situation where “whole countries and whole populations are being pushed back into poverty in a structural way.”
A recent report by the UNDP warned that the ongoing military escalation in the Middle East could push more than 30 million people into poverty worldwide.
De Croo explained that international financial institutions should be providing macro-economic interventions, such as targeted and time-limited cash-outs to those impacted or providing free access to fuel and cooking gas.
“If you don’t do these targeted, timely, macroeconomic interventions, you will have many more ripple effects,” De Croo told Euronews.
“And we have not talked about the ripple effects of poverty, of food insecurity. That could lead to additional conflicts. That could lead to more displacement and migration flows, which could lead to other types of extremism.”
The UNDP report also noted that, while the conflict’s impacts are “concentrated in countries directly affected by the conflict and those dependent on imported energy”, there is evidence of significant longer-term harm to poorer countries that are not directly involved.
“The impact goes way beyond the region,” De Croo said. “For example, Sub-Saharan Africa is severely impacted by what is going on in the region. Small island states, for example, in the Pacific, you start to have a few islands that just don’t have enough fuel anymore. So the impact of the war and the blockade that is linked to it has a deep impact.”
He argued that such phenomena prove that “war is development in reverse.”
“It takes decades to lift people out of poverty. It takes six weeks of work to push them back into poverty,” he added.
‘No crystal ball’
Euronews spoke to De Croo amid rumours of a new round of talks between the United States and Iran. US President Donald Trump has said that both sides are “very close” to making a deal and that talks with Iran could resume in Pakistan’s capital, Islamabad, as early as this weekend.
When asked whether he is confident that the US and Iran can come to a diplomatic solution, De Croo responded: “Am I confident? I have no crystal ball. Am I hopeful? Yes.”
A 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon came into effect on Thursday night, raising hopes that Israeli and Lebanese officials could begin negotiations on a more permanent security and peace agreement.
De Croo noted that this ceasefire is “very necessary.” Around 1.2 million people have been displaced in Lebanon as a results of Israeli bombardments in response to Hezbollah joining the regional war on 2 March, sending missiles towards Israel.
“The human loss is massive, but also the material loss is massive,” De Croo said. “In Lebanon, the international community has invested so much in stabilising the country, in providing hospitals, schools and other types of infrastructure. All that is now being blown up. People’s taxes are just being blown up in military action.”
He added that he hopes the ceasefire will live up to its name and not be a “diminishment of fire as we’ve seen, for example, in Gaza.”
Groups working on the ground in Gaza, including Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF), have said that Israeli forces are continuing attacks and expanding their military control of the Strip.
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