Iran draws missile red line as analysts warn Tehran is stalling US talks

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his country would not negotiate on its ballistic missile program, rejecting a core U.S. demand and further dimming prospects for a breakthrough deal.

He again warned in an interview with Al Jazeera that Tehran, Iran, would target U.S. bases in the Middle East if provoked, calling Iran’s missile program “never negotiable.”

The warnings came as U.S. and Iranian negotiators met in early February in Oman, even as Washington continued to build up military forces across the region — a posture U.S. officials say is meant to deter further escalation but which analysts argue also underscores how far apart the two sides remain.

Despite the imbalance in military power, analysts say Iran believes it can withstand U.S. pressure by signaling greater resolve — and by betting that Washington’s appetite for war is limited.

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While the U.S. possesses overwhelming military capabilities, Defense Priorities analyst Rosemary Kelanic said Iran is relying on the logic of asymmetric conflict.

“One country is much stronger, but the weaker country cares more,” Kelanic said. “And historically, the country that cares more often wins by outlasting the stronger one.”

“Iran is trying to signal resolve as strongly as it can, but it likely doubts U.S. resolve — because from Tehran’s perspective, the stakes for Iran are existential, while the stakes for the United States are not,” she added.

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Behnam Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said Tehran’s primary leverage is its ability to threaten wider regional instability, even if it cannot win a prolonged conflict.

“The Islamic Republic’s leverage is the threat of a region-wide war,” Taleblu said, noting that while U.S. and Israeli defenses could intercept most attacks, “something will get hit.”

Iran buying time

Analysts across the spectrum agree that Iran is using negotiations less as a path to compromise than as a way to delay decisive action.

Oren Kessler, analyst at global consulting firm Wikistrat, said Iran is using talks to stabilize its position internally while avoiding concessions on core security issues.

“Both sides want a deal, but their red lines are very hard for the other side to overcome,” Kesler said. “The talks are going well in the sense that they’re happening, but they’re not really going anywhere.”

Taleblu echoed that assessment, arguing that Tehran is treating diplomacy as a shield rather than a solution.

“The regime is treating negotiations as a lifeline rather than a way to resolve the core problem,” he said.

Taleblu added that Iran’s leadership sees talks as a way to deter a strike in the short term, weaken domestic opposition in the medium term, and eventually secure sanctions relief to stabilize its economy.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio has insisted that limits on Iran’s ballistic missiles must be part of any agreement to avoid military action.

“At the end of the day, the United States is prepared to engage, and has always been prepared to engage with Iran,” Rubio said in early February. “In order for talks to actually lead to something meaningful, they will have to include certain things, and that includes the range of their ballistic missiles. That includes their sponsorship of terrorist organizations across the region. That includes the nuclear program. And that includes the treatment of their own people.”

Anti-government protests beginning at the start of 2026 led to a brutal crackdown in Iran. The regime has admitted to 3,117 deaths linked to the demonstrations, though human rights groups and Iranian resistance organizations peg the death toll as much higher. 

The U.S. also has demanded that Iran give up all enriched uranium stockpiles, which can be used for civilian energy at low levels but for nuclear weapons at higher concentrations.

Araghchi told Al Jazeera that Iran is willing to negotiate on nuclear issues but insisted enrichment is an “inalienable right” that “must continue.”

“We are ready to reach a reassuring agreement on enrichment,” he said. “The Iranian nuclear case will only be resolved through negotiations.”

Iran’s atomic chief said Monday that Tehran would consider diluting its 60% enriched uranium — a level close to weapons-grade — but only in exchange for the lifting of all sanctions.

As negotiations unfolded, the U.S. continued to expand its military footprint in the Middle East.

In late January, the U.S. dispatched a carrier strike group centered on the USS Abraham Lincoln to the North Arabian Sea, accompanied by multiple destroyers and other naval assets. Additional F-15E strike aircraft and air defense systems have also been repositioned at bases across the region, alongside thousands of U.S. troops.

Taleblu said the administration may be using diplomacy to buy time of its own.

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“The charitable interpretation is that the president is buying time — moving assets, strengthening missile defense, and preparing military options,” he said. “The less charitable interpretation is that the United States is taking Iran’s threats as highly credible and still chasing the optics of a deal.”

In 2025, five rounds of talks similarly stalled over U.S. demands that Iran abandon enrichment entirely — talks that ultimately collapsed into Operation Midnight Hammer, a U.S.-led bombing campaign against Iranian nuclear facilities.