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It was a top issue at the ballot box in 2024 that boosted President Donald Trump and Republicans to sweeping victories.
But in the wake of new political backlash over Trump’s unprecedented illegal immigration crackdown, the latest polling on the issue raises warning signs for Republicans and suggests immigration may come back to take a bite out of the GOP in this year’s midterm elections, as the party defends its slim House and Senate majorities.
National Republican Congressional Committee Chair Rep. Richard Hudson of North Carolina told Fox News Digital that when it comes to the issue of immigration, “I think it’s going to be very helpful for us going into the election.”
But new polling — conducted before Thursday’s announcement that the Trump administration was winding down the massive deployment earlier this year of masked federal immigration agents in Minnesota, but after last month’s fatal shootings by those agents of Renee Nicole Good and Alex Pretti — suggests otherwise.
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The president’s approval on immigration stands at 38% in an AP-NORC poll conducted Feb. 5-8. That’s a drop from 49% last March, just over a month into the president’s second term in the White House.
A similar 38% gave the president a thumbs up on immigration in the most recent Quinnipiac University poll, which was in the field Jan. 29-Feb. 2. That’s down from 44% in mid-December.
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And Trump stood at 40% approval in the latest NBC News Decision Desk poll, a drop from 49% last April. The survey questioned respondents from Jan. 27-Feb. 6.
And the most recent Fox News national poll, conducted Jan. 23–26, indicated the president’s approval on handling border security at 52%-47%, but his approval on immigration underwater at 45%-55%.
A common theme in all these polls: while Republicans continue to strongly support the president and their party on immigration, independents are joining Democrats in strongly disapproving.
The Trump administration announced on Thursday that it was unwinding its immigration operation in Minnesota, amid ongoing protests and continued opposition from top Democrats in the blue-leaning state.
“A significant drawdown has already been underway this week, and will continue to the next week,” border czar Tom Homan said.
But he added that “as a result of our efforts here, Minnesota is now less of a sanctuary state for criminals.”
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Pointing to Trump’s swift actions a year ago, veteran Republican strategist Colin Reed noted that “shutting down the southern border was such a major accomplishment and achieved so quickly and effectively that many voters have forgotten just how bad things got under the Biden Administration.”
“It’s an issue that resonated powerfully across the political spectrum, and one that should and can be a political tailwind heading into November,” he added.
But Reed highlighted that “regardless of the cause, the recent events in Minnesota were not helpful to the White House or Republican brand, and they were wise to change course and bring down the temperature.”
The Democratic National Committee (DNC) has highlighted the president’s sagging approval ratings on immigration and polls showing rising disenchantment with the actions of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents. “Americans increasingly oppose ICE’s conduct,” the DNC said in a statement.
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But Hudson is taking aim at what he calls a false narrative from the mainstream media.
“There’s a whole lot of that coming out of the mainstream media right now, and it’s just not true,” he told Fox News Digital. “People are going to feel more secure at home because of these efforts. President Trump’s doing the right thing.”
The new AP/NORC poll indicates Republicans with a slight edge over Democrats on the immigration issue.
Asked if immigration will still be a winning issue in the midterms, the House GOP campaign chief said: “It’s a promise made, a promise kept, that we are getting these dangerous criminals out of your neighborhood.”
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