How do Europeans' political views shape their opinion of the Iran war?

Many Europeans say they are deeply concerned about the war in the Middle East, according to new research by Ipsos, with the Italians, French and Dutch among the most worried.

In fact, three-quarters of Dutch respondents claimed to be more concerned about the war in the Middle East than about the wars in Ukraine and Gaza.

Nearly eight in 10 French respondents fear an escalation of the conflict beyond the Middle East, while more than three in 10 Italians share the same concerns.

The economic consequences of the conflict are also among Europeans’ main worries, with 65% of French people saying they are in favour of implementing measures to freeze or lower fuel prices to combat rising costs.

However, political preferences play a role in citizens’ worries and support for different measures.

In Italy, centrist voters of parties like Forza Italia and Partito Democratico are more concerned than other voters about a potential spread of the conflict.

In contrast, right-wing supporters of parties such as Fratelli d’Italia and Lega are more worried about the economic consequences and the risk of terrorism stemming from the war.

Public opinion in the Netherlands is also divided on the US-Israeli strikes on Iran.

Four in 10 Dutch respondents consider the attacks a bad thing, compared with 21% who view them positively. A significant share remains neutral (25%) or undecided (15%).

In the Netherlands, support for the attacks is higher among voters of right-wing conservative parties (Reformed Political Party, JA21 and Geert Wilders’ Freedom Party), while voters of left-leaning and progressive parties (GroenLinks-PvdA, Party for the Animals, Socialist Party, Democrats 66) are more likely to oppose them.

What should the government’s role be in the Iran war?

The public’s view of their national government’s response and role also varies by respondents’ political views.

A slim majority of French people approve of the actions taken by their government since the beginning of the Iran war, compared to 44% who disapprove.

Support is overwhelming in the central bloc, while disapproval is prevalent among supporters of the hard-left France Unbowed (65%) and the far-right National Rally (54%).

President Emmanuel Macron’s decision to deploy the aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle and war frigates is dividing French respondents, however: 49% say they are in favour, believing that France must protect its interests and its allies.

This opinion is shared particularly by supporters of the central bloc (78%), followed by the Republicans party (LR) (64%) and the Socialists (57%).

On the other hand, 50% of French people say they oppose it, fearing that the move will draw France into the conflict. Opposition is strongest among supporters of France Unbowed (65%), the National Rally (60%), and The Ecologists (53%).

In Italy, 34% of respondents call for neutrality and mediation between parties, while 13% of Italian respondents claim the country should provide diplomatic support to the US and Israel, and 2% think the country should have direct military involvement.

Yet, 27% of respondents were unable to answer what role they think Italy should take in the war.

Lastly, in the Netherlands, only 23% of respondents were supportive of the government’s response.

According to the study by Ipsos, this attitude often means that people want the Netherlands to criticise Israel and the US more (37%), while a smaller proportion actually want to offer more support to these countries (13%).

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