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The gasoline prices American consumers are expected to face in 2027 are now projected to be higher than previously reported, though they should still see some relief relative to the prices at the pump that prevailed for much of 2026.
The latest short-term energy outlook produced by the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the Energy Department’s independent statistical agency, said it expects supplies of gas and diesel to remain constrained through the end of 2027.
EIA estimated in its November report that retail gasoline prices are expected to be $3.73 a gallon in 2027, which would be a decrease from $3.89 a gallon this year.
However, the EIA’s 2027 estimate represents an increase of 5% from the agency’s outlook last month, when it projected gas prices to be $3.56 a gallon nationally in 2027.
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“Although we expect the U.S. average retail price of gasoline and diesel to decline in 2027, we raised our forecast for those prices from last month’s outlook,” EIA explained.
The agency’s latest forecast for diesel sees retail prices at $5.03 a gallon in 2027, which was up from the prior forecast of $4.49 a gallon but would still be below the $5.25 a gallon for diesel that consumers have faced in 2026.
“We now assume global petroleum markets will face continued supply constraints through the end of 2027. These market conditions will support wider petroleum crack spreads next year and incentivize elevated U.S. refinery operations,” EIA explained.
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The forecast noted that, in terms of the global energy market, crude oil prices rose for the third consecutive month in October due to falling inventories, attacks on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, constrained shipping capacity and higher transportation costs that have tightened supply.
EIA said its forecast anticipates “most Middle East production outside Iran to return to pre-conflict averages by the middle of next year.”
While Brent crude oil spot prices are expected to remain near $100 per barrel for the rest of 2026, the EIA forecasted that the price will gradually fall to an average of $77 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2027.
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Consumer gas prices dropped below $4 a gallon for the first time since July on Tuesday, and data from AAA showed the national average price fell to $3.97 a gallon.
Gas prices fell further on Wednesday, with the latest figure showing the national average at $3.94 a gallon, down about 18 cents from a week ago and 41 cents from a month ago.
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