Fox News Poll: Nail-biter in Maine Senate race

Maine voters are in a negative mood this election season. Only 12% say their family is better off financially compared to two years ago, and more than 6 in 10 disapprove of President Donald Trump’s job performance, including 2 in 10 Republicans.

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A Fox News survey of Maine likely voters finds that mood weighs on Republican Sen. Susan Collins, as 53% are concerned she votes with Trump too much. By contrast, 46% are concerned Democratic challenger Troy Jackson is too liberal.

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Despite those views, the horse race shows the candidates tied, with Jackson and Collins at 49% apiece. All survey interviews were completed after the candidates’ Oct. 15 debate.

Collins, who first won her seat about three decades ago, is seeking a sixth term. She’s the only GOP senator running for re-election this year from a state Trump lost in 2024 (by 7 points). In 2020, Collins won by nearly 9 points.

Democrats view Maine as a must-win seat in their effort to take control of the Senate. When voters are asked about control of the U.S. Senate, 53% prefer a Democratic-led Senate vs. 45% who want the Republicans to remain in charge. While almost all Jackson supporters want Democratic control (96%), Collins supporters are more divided: 89% want a GOP-led chamber, but 9% prefer Democratic leadership.

Collins will need to overcome the energy on the left, as far more Democrats (79%) than Republicans (61%) say they are extremely interested in the election, which explains why Jackson is ahead by 16 points among that group. He’s up by 4 points among those who say they are “certain” to vote, and also carries the one in five Mainers who have already cast a ballot by a decisive 40 points. On the other hand, a slim majority plans to vote on Election Day, and they favor Collins by 12 points.

“Collins is no stranger to outrunning her party, but Democrats hold an 18-point enthusiasm advantage,” says Mikaela Linder of Beacon Research, a Democratic polling firm that conducts the Fox News Poll with Republican Daron Shaw. “Trump’s job rating is 25 points underwater, and a majority strongly disapproves of him. Jackson has an opening if he can carry that momentum beyond his base and across the finish line.”

Views of the president’s performance are a problem for GOP candidates in Maine. Currently, 37% of voters approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 62% disapprove, including 54% who strongly disapprove.

The candidates’ personal favorability ratings are both underwater. Views of Jackson are negative by 2 points (47% favorable, 49% unfavorable), and by 4 points for Collins (47%-51%).

Partisan vote choice varies distinctly across key groups. Voters under 45 favor Collins by 6 points, while those ages 45 and older prefer Jackson by 3. Women support Jackson by 5 points, while men back Collins by 4.

The sharpest divide is education: Mainers with a college degree pick Jackson by 23 points, while Collins leads among those without a degree by 16.

Collins is ahead among those living in rural areas by 7 points, while Jackson is the pick of the smaller number of suburban voters by 18 points.

For comparison, in 2020, Collins won both the voters living in rural areas and those without a college degree by 18 points each.

“Republicans appear to be struggling with White rural voters this cycle, and Maine is no exception,” Shaw said. “GOP candidates desperately need these voters to show up, and need something like a 65-35 vote to overcome Democratic strength in urban areas.”

Party loyalty is roughly even as 9 in 10 of each candidate’s party faithful back them, and the small subgroup of independents favors Collins by 13 points. Both Jackson (92%) and Collins (90%) supporters have a high degree of vote certainty. 

In Maine’s gubernatorial race, Democrat Hannah Pingree leads Republican Bobby Charles by 10 points, 49% to 39%, while independent candidate Rick Bennett takes 9%.

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Unlike Jackson, whose coalition backs Pingree almost unanimously (only 8% defect), nearly one in five Collins supporters (19%) peel off to either Bennett (11%) or Pingree (8%).

Conducted October 16-20, 2026, under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,689 Maine registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (226) and cellphones (1,035) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (428). Results based on the registered voter sample have a margin of sampling error of ±2 percentage points and for the subsample of 1,514 likely voters it is ±2.5 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population. Likely voters are based on a probabilistic statistical model that relies on past vote history, interest in the current election, intention to vote, age, education, race, ethnicity, and marital status. Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100. 

Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.