Fox News Poll: Cost-of-living concerns weigh on GOP in midterms

When voters rate the economy and the president negatively just weeks before Election Day, the incumbent party is vulnerable, and that’s certainly the case in the latest Fox News survey.

The economic landscape is stark. Six in 10 voters say the cost of living is their top economic worry, overshadowing government spending (15%), jobs and income inequality (7% each), tariffs (6%) and taxes (5%). 

Majorities rate the economy negatively (74%) and expect it to worsen next year (53%), while two-thirds are dissatisfied with how things are going in the country (66%). Few, 18%, say their family is better off compared to two years ago. Independents say they’re worse off (52%) and think the economy will get worse (70%).

FOX NEWS POLL: IT’S A LONE STAR SENATE SHOWDOWN BETWEEN TALARICO AND PAXTON

A majority of voters, 55%, say inflation is “not at all” under control. That’s up from a low of 45% earlier this year, and includes 30% of Republicans.

President Donald Trump’s lowest job rating is on inflation: 22% approve, a new low. Last summer, 36% approved. Four years ago, before the 2022 midterms, 29% approved of former President Joe Biden’s performance on inflation.

Disapproval of the job Trump is doing has reached 77% on inflation, 70% on the economy, 69% on tariffs and 64% on foreign policy. A smaller share, but still a majority, disapprove of his handling of immigration (56% disapprove), while border security is the only issue that is close to positive (50% approve, 50% disapprove).

Trump’s overall job approval is 36%, his lowest ever in a Fox News survey for either term. It had been holding steady at 39% since May. The decline is mainly driven by decreases among voters under age 45, those with annual household income below $50,000, non-White voters, and those without a college degree.

FOX NEWS POLL: MICHIGAN VOTERS SPLIT BETWEEN EL-SAYED AND ROGERS

Approval stands at a low of 76% among Republicans. That’s down 3 points since last month, 12 points since September 2025, and 16 points since early in his second term (March 2025).

As in most midterms, voters are prone to punish the party in power: 7 in 10 say they will vote to send a message to Trump, with nearly twice as many expressing opposition (47%) as support (25%).

If the election were today, 54% of voters say they would back the Democratic candidate in their House district and 45% would support the Republican. That is outside the margin of error and is a wider lead than last month when Democrats were ahead by 51%-44%. The race narrows among those saying they are certain to vote, with the Democratic candidate ahead by 52%-46%.

The survey finds about the same number self-identify as Democrats (43%) and Republicans (41%), and both parties feel equally certain about voting (62% and 64% respectively), while more Democrats (61%) than Republicans (52%) say they are extremely interested in the election.

Party loyalty is solid: 98% of Democrats support their party’s candidate, and 94% of Republicans back theirs. Independents favor the Democrats by 26 points.

The Democratic candidate is the choice among Whites with a degree, those under age 45, women, union households and Hispanics. The Republican is ahead among Whites without a college degree (White men without a degree in particular), those 65 and over, voters who attend religious services regularly, military veterans and White evangelical Christians.

While 43% of Hispanic voters supported Trump in the 2024 election, just 31% prefer the Republican candidate this year.

“When the country is this closely divided in terms of partisanship, slight differences in defection and turnout rates can make all the difference,” said Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who helps conduct the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson. “Republicans have time to close these apparent gaps, but it’s getting late.”

Meanwhile, Democrats lead on 10 out of 13 issue concerns.

The top five voter concerns are government corruption (60% extremely concerned), inflation (58%), gas prices (50%), government leadership (49%), and healthcare (48%). And double digits more trust the Democrats than the Republicans to handle each of those.

Republicans retain the advantage on crime (by 10 points) and border security (R+8), while views are closely divided on immigration (R+3). The Democrats are seen as better on healthcare (D+22), inflation (D+16), gas prices (D+12), voting rights (D+12), election integrity (D+12), government leadership (D+11), what’s taught in public schools (D+11), artificial intelligence (D+10), government corruption (D+10) and foreign policy (D+9).

Republicans have lost ground on key issues compared to four years ago, when more voters trusted them by 21 points on border security, 13 points on inflation and 9 points on foreign policy.

Other issues that voters are extremely concerned about are the Iran war (42%), immigration (35%), crime (34%), voter suppression (32%), AI technology (32%), what’s taught in public schools (29%), voter fraud (28%) and border security (25%).

While corruption in government and inflation are the top two worries about both parties, far more Democrats (72% and 70%) than Republicans (47% and 49%) are extremely concerned.

The issue that helps explain the Democrats’ advantage isn’t an issue at all. By a 14-point margin, more voters think the Democrats will do a better job “fighting for people like you.” Majorities of White voters with a college degree (53%), men (52%), women (60%) and non-White voters (77%) think Democrats will fight for them. Whites without a college degree are split 49-49%.

Despite their issue advantage, just 35% say Democrats have a clear plan for dealing with the country’s problems, and 33% say the same about the Republicans. That reverses the Republican advantage from July 2025, when 43% said the Republicans had a clear plan compared with 33% for the Democrats.

There’s deep dissatisfaction with lawmakers: 15% approve of Congress, while 84% disapprove. Remarkably, that’s above the low of 9% approval in October 2013.

Both parties are viewed negatively. The Democratic Party is underwater by 16 points (42% favorable, 58% unfavorable), while ratings of the GOP are net negative by 23 points (38% favorable, 61% unfavorable).

Yet, favorable ratings fail to translate directly into vote choice. One third of those backing the Democratic candidate (31%) dislike the party, while 23% of those supporting the Republican dislike the GOP. Among the 26% who dislike both parties (double haters), Democrats lead 62%-36%.

Here’s how polarized the parties are: Just 16% of Republicans say that Democrats love America and want what’s best for the U.S., and even fewer Democrats, 6%, think Republicans do.

Compared to four years ago, the number of voters saying Democrats want what’s best for the country is up four points, while fewer say Republicans love the country now by 6 points.

Poll-pourri

Fifty-one percent of voters have a favorable view of capitalism compared with 32% for socialism. Compared to a year ago, positive ratings of capitalism are down 2 points while they are up 5 points for socialism. Eight in ten of those with a positive view of socialism support the Democratic candidate, while 6 in 10 of those viewing capitalism favorably back the Republican.

Voters who plan to cast their ballots early favor the Democratic candidate (by 19 points) as do mail voters (D+33), while the candidate choice splits among those voting in person (early or on Election Day).

Six in 10 oppose U.S. military action against Iran, and they back the Democrats by 56 points.

CLICK HERE FOR CROSSTABS AND TOPLINE

A new high of 46% think the U.S. is too supportive of Israel, and those voters favor the Democratic candidate by 42 points, while the 4 in 10 who think U.S. support of Israel is about right pick the Republican by 27 points.

Nearly 6 in 10 have a negative view of artificial intelligence technology, and they back the Democratic candidate by 27 points.

Conducted Oct. 9-12, 2026, under the direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News survey includes interviews with a sample of 1,202 registered voters randomly selected from a national voter file. Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (114) and cellphones (786) or completed the survey online after receiving a text (302). Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ±2.5 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher. In addition to sampling errors, question wording and order can influence results. Weights are generally applied to age, race, education and area variables to ensure the demographics are representative of the registered voter population. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis and voter file data.

Fox News’ Victoria Balara contributed to this report.