Fox News Poll: An early look at the Georgia Senate race

Georgia Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff narrowly won his Senate seat in a January 2021 runoff, defeating Republican David Perdue by just over a percentage point. New Fox News polling suggests a different dynamic this time, as Ossoff holds a double-digit lead over GOP challenger Mike Collins in the 2026 Georgia Senate race.

After receiving a last-minute endorsement from President Trump in the June GOP primary runoff, Collins defeated Derek Dooley, who was backed by Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp. Trump carried the Peach State by about 2 points in 2024 after losing it by less than a point in 2020. He won the state by more than 5 points in 2016.

The Fox News survey, released Wednesday, finds Ossoff receives 56% support from Georgia registered voters compared to 43% for Collins.

The incumbent Democrat enjoys strong support from Black voters (87%), those under age 30 (68%), independents (68%), moderates (66%), and women under 45 (66%).  Among the 82% of Georgia voters who say they are motivated to vote, Ossoff leads by 11 points (55% vs. 44% Collins).

Collins’ best groups include White evangelical Christians (79%), White men without a college degree (65%), and rural voters (55%). About half of gun-owner households (53%) and veterans (50%) also favor him.

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Ossoff benefits from greater party loyalty, as nearly all Democrats (96%) back him and more than 8 in 10 of his supporters say their vote is for him rather than against Collins.

For Collins, 9 in 10 Republicans back him (89%) but only 56% of his supporters say their vote is for him, while 44% say it is primarily against Ossoff.

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Notably, nearly a quarter of non-MAGA Republicans say they will back the Democrat compared to just 4% of MAGA supporters.

Ossoff is mostly matching his numbers among demographics in the 2021 Georgia Senate Runoff Fox News Voter Analysis (FNVA) election survey, while Collins is underperforming Perdue.

There are similar levels of enthusiasm for both candidates. About 8 in 10 Ossoff supporters say they are certain to vote for him (81%) and are extremely or very motivated to cast a ballot (81%). Among Collins supporters, 78% are certain to back him and 84% are motivated to vote. 

Nearly 6 in 10 voters have a favorable opinion of Ossoff (58%), much higher than the 4 in 10 for Collins (44%) and Trump (42%). Trump’s favorable rating is down 5 points from 47% in the 2024 Georgia FNVA. 

Georgians are 6 points more likely to say they are extremely or very concerned that Collins is too close to Trump (53%) than that Ossoff is too liberal (47%).

Inflation dominates voter concerns, with 40% saying the issue will be most important to their Senate vote. Healthcare ranks a distant second (13%), followed by political divisions (11%), immigration (11%), and jobs and unemployment (11%). Fewer say the Iran conflict (5%), crime (5%), or abortion (3%).

Ossoff holds large advantages among voters who are most concerned about inflation (+21), healthcare (+40), and political divisions (+18), while Collins has a significant lead among those focused on immigration (+45).

“As Brooklyn Dodgers’ announcer Red Barber used to say, Ossoff is ‘sitting in the Catbird seat’” says Daron Shaw, a Republican who conducts the survey with Democrat Chris Anderson. “My hunch is the race will become much more competitive, but Collins has work to do convincing Republicans and independents that he and the president can make things more affordable for rank-and-file Georgians.”

Despite concerns about inflation, half say their finances are holding steady (51%), while 35% say they are falling behind. Only 14% feel they are getting ahead financially.

In the Georgia governor’s race, Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms has a 5-point edge, with 52% support compared to 47% for Republican Rick Jackson. That is within the poll’s margin of error.

The results show some ticket splitting: 11% of Ossoff supporters cross party lines to back Jackson for governor, while 5% of Collins supporters back Lance Bottoms.

Lance Bottoms’ supporters are more certain of their vote than Jackson’s (80% vs. 75%).

Both candidates have net-positive personal favorability ratings. Lance Bottoms is viewed favorably by 52% and unfavorably by 38%, while for Jackson it is 43% favorable and 38% unfavorable. Roughly 1 in 10 voters have never heard of each candidate.

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Conducted June 23-27, 2026 under the joint direction of Beacon Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R), this Fox News Poll includes interviews with a sample of 1,002 Georgia registered voters randomly selected from a statewide voter file.  Respondents spoke with live interviewers on landlines (39) and cellphones (710) or completed the survey online after receiving a text message (253).  Results based on the full sample have a margin of sampling error of ± 3 percentage points. Sampling error for results among subgroups is higher.  In addition to sampling error, question wording and order can influence results. Sources for developing weight targets include the most recent American Community Survey, Fox News Voter Analysis, and voter file data.  Weights are generally applied to age, race, education, and area variables to ensure the demographics of respondents are representative of the registered voter population.  Results among subgroups are only shown when the sample size is at least N=100.