AFC South Predictions: Can The Texans Reclaim The Division From The Jaguars?

The AFC South is shaping up to be one of the NFL’s most unpredictable divisions this season. The Houston Texans have held the crown for years, but can they reclaim the division with the Jacksonville Jaguars’ young core not going away any time soon?

With a healthy Daniel Jones back for the Indianapolis Colts and veteran wide receiver Keenan Allen now in the fold, the Colts could make some real noise. Over in Tennessee, the arrival of Robert Saleh puts a rebuilding Titans team in a prime position to play spoiler down the stretch.

If you want to know how the AFC South will unfold, the “First Things First” group of co-hosts were all over it. On Thursday’s show, Nick Wright, Danny Parkins, and Chris Broussard broke down the AFC South. They didn’t stop at general commentary, either. The trio made their definitive predictions for how the division will shake out.

Nick Wright’s AFC South Prediction

The Titans are entering a full rebuild under head coach Robert Saleh, but Nick Wright still sees potential for growth. With offensive additions like Carnell Tate and Wan’Dale Robinson, Wright believes a six-win season is well within reach.

“I do have them getting six wins … here’s the case for them,” Wright said. “Carnell Tate, Cam Ward take a year or two jump, and maybe Robert Saleh is actually a good head coach.”

When it comes to the expectations for the Colts, all eyes shift towards Jones and his recovery from the season-ending Achilles injury. Wright’s concerns aren’t about Jones specifically, but they’re focused squarely on head coach Shane Steichen. 

After failing to meet expectations, Wright believes Steichen should be firmly on the hot seat.

“Daniel Jones [is] quickly coming back from the Achilles injury, but how mobile is he actually going to be,” Wright said. Also, I worry about Shane Steichen, and I worry about the instant hot seat.”

When it comes to the Jaguars, they’re not so easy to predict. After winning 13 games last season and winning the division, they could be a team that’s not just on the rise, but could be competitive for years to come.

Wright made sure to highlight the Jaguars’ young core in quarterback Trevor Lawrence and two-way standout Travis Hunter.

“13 wins like last year,” Wright said. “There’s no way they don’t get at least a little more out of Travis Hunter this year. They’re not going to get less. Year two of Trevor Lawrence and [Liam] Coen…I like that. They have, far away, the best quarterback in that division.”

The Houston Texans topped Wright’s predictions. He highlighted that the performance of quarterback C.J. Stroud will be a large factor in Houston’s success this season.

“I think they will be fighting for the No. 1 seed all year,” Wright said. “I think they go 12-5. If CJ Stroud is average, they can win 11 games. If he’s above average, they can win 12 games. If he’s good, you can argue they’re the best team in the league.”

Chris Broussard’s AFC South Prediction

Broussard followed Wright’s lead in his AFC South predictions, with the Texans standing at No. 1 and the Titans at the bottom. With new head coach Robert Saleh, Broussard is hoping for good things to come out of Saleh’s first year and Ward’s second starting season.

“I hope I’m wrong. I like Cam Ward. I would really like to see him do something this year,” Broussard said. “I’d like to see Saleh get a real chance … We’ll see, I’m pulling for him.”

For the Colts’ third-place prediction, Broussard has a hard time believing that Indianapolis won’t follow the same pattern this season as it did last season. 

“We all remember the 8-2 start, and then one of the worst collapses in NFL history. They lost their last seven. They lost their last three when Jones was healthy. Why? Because they started playing good teams,” Broussard said.

For the Jaguars at second, their run to the playoffs was impressive, but Broussard does not see back-to-back appearances. 

“At No. 2, the Jags, but missing the playoffs,” Broussard said. “He was very good last year. Is that who he finally is? Or is he going to go back down the roller coaster? I’m not betting on a bad year, but I’m not expecting a good year.”

As the Texans top Broussard’s list, the talented defense is a large factor in its success. However, the talent that Stroud brings to the offense will be another point of focus for Broussard. 

“The Houston Texans [are] winning this division. Contrary to popular opinion, C.J. was average last year … obviously he was banged up for a few games. I expect a bounce back,” Broussard said. “I don’t know if I’m ever expecting him to be that great top-five quarterback that we thought he was going to be.”

Danny Parkins’ AFC South Prediction

Like Wright and Broussard, Danny Parkins placed the Titans in last. Parkins did not hold back when it came to what the Titans season could look like under quarterback Cam Ward.

“I’d be really worried if I was a Titans fan. I love Carnell Tate, I loved it leading up to the NFL Draft,” Parkins said. “I didn’t see much of anything to believe in Cam Ward. I think they are in contention, with the Dolphins, for the worst team in the NFL.”

Parkins switched things up and placed the Jaguars third. While Lawrence has been through ups and downs in his NFL career, Parkins is not expecting Lawrence to hold the same standard he did in last year’s 13-4 season. 

“A huge regression for the Jacksonville Jaguars,” Parkins said. “I think Trevor Lawrence cannot be trusted. Is it possible that Liam Coen unlocked it? Absolutely. … He did it with Baker, he did it with Trevor. But his whole career has been a roller-coaster. Seems like we might be ready for a big dip.”

As for Parkins’ second-place team, the Texans, the defense should not be an issue for Houston. However, the concern lies within Stroud at the helm of the offense.

“You have the best defense in the NFL, but defensive production year over year does fluctuate,” Parkins said. They had remarkable defensive health last year … I don’t have evidence that C.J. Stroud is good.”

And sitting atop his AFC South predictions, Parkins believes the Colts will take home the AFC South title. Parkins emphasized the Colts could be a dangerous team in the division if Jones is back in full force.

“They return four of five starters on their offensive line. … I really like their offense this year … they need to win by scoring,” Parkins said. “So if you see the best version of Daniel Jones for a full year, I think the Colts can win the AFC South.”