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Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro’s regime was crucial to propping up America’s closest Communist neighbor, Cuba, for many years — but with the despot now in a New York prison, U.S. lawmakers and analysts are turning their attention to Mexico, a top U.S. ally and trading partner that has quietly taken Venezuela’s place.
As of January, Mexico reportedly accounted for 13,000 barrels per day or 44% of Cuba’s 2025 oil imports, the top factor keeping what some lawmakers describe as a teetering economy barely afloat. With renewed trade talks approaching in July, Republican lawmakers and conservative analysts are calling for increased pressure on Mexico to cut off Cuba’s oil lifeline.
The Trump administration is also weighing instituting a maritime blockade on oil imports to Cuba, according to Politico. The outlet noted that the move would be an escalation of its previously-stated plan to cut off imports from Venezuela, where Maduro’s former Vice President Delcy Rodríguez is now acting president. Such a blockade could spur crisis in the country, and lead to the economic collapse of the Castro/Diaz-Canel regime for which much of the U.S. diaspora has long hoped.
“The Cuban government was, even before this action with Maduro, probably at the weakest point that the regime has been in the last 65 years,” said Rep. Carlos Gimenez, R-Fla., the only Cuban-born member of Congress.
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“This just makes them weaker. My one concern is that it appears that Mexico is now trying to prop them up. And so, the oil that they were receiving from Venezuela is now being supplanted by oil being received by Mexico.”
The Florida Republican said Mexico is in such a position in part because it is “governed by a Marxist,” casting criticism of socialist-party-aligned President Claudia Sheinbaum.
“The oil that they were receiving from Venezuela is now being supplanted by oil being received by Mexico,” he said.
“It doesn’t matter that [the Miguel Diaz-Canel] regime [in Cuba] has been suppressing and oppressing its people for 65 years, as long as they have the right ideology.”
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Gimenez said that Congress could use upcoming intracontinental trade talks over the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) to pressure Sheinbaum to stop supporting the dictatorship just 90 miles from Fort Zachary Taylor, at the southern tip of his district.
Cuba is already experiencing rolling blackouts, inability to feed its people, medical shortages and a nosedive in tourism due to those developments, he said.
“Would it be okay for us to kind of nudge them over the edge? I don’t know a problem with that,” he quipped.
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Andres Martinez-Fernandez, a Latin America and national security policy analyst who leads the Heritage Foundation’s research on the region, told Fox News Digital that U.S. tolerance for Mexico’s new position may not last.
“It’s a major issue,” he said, adding the Mexico-Cuba relationship got to “worrying levels” under Sheinbaum’s predecessor and now involves a Cuban medical program he called “forced slavery for revenue” involving Cuban doctors arriving in Mexico and sending remittances home – much of which can get funneled to the regime.
If Mexico City wants to continue aiding Havana, it had better prepare for “severe pushback,” he said, similarly citing the USMCA negotiations that Gimenez mentioned.
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Those aspects, along with President Donald Trump’s discontent with Sheinbaum’s resistance to U.S. action against cartels could come to a head, he suggested, calling Mexico’s attitude “mendacious and duplicitous.”
“It says nothing good if they decide, to maintain this overt support for the Cuban regime as we continue to see this inadequate action on the cartel front.”
Trump declared earlier this month that there will be “no more oil or money going to Cuba – Zero” and the Department of War has been seizing sanctioned “shadow-fleet” oil tankers.
A White House official said Cuba is failing of its own volition and that its rulers suffered a major setback in losing support from the ousted Maduro regime. Trump believes Cuba should make a deal “before it is too late.”
Meanwhile, the aforementioned USMCA talks are scheduled to take place in July, when the trilateral trade deal undergoes a scheduled review.
The U.S. is likely to seek additional concessions from Mexico and Canada amid trade disputes, the Center for Strategic and International Studies predicted last year, with the interceding Mexico-Cuba development likely to further invigorate such demands.
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The Sheinbaum administration, which did not respond to a request for comment, has reportedly painted its shipments as “humanitarian aid” for the Cuban people.
If Mexico continues oil shipments, it may lead to additionally tense relations between the U.S. and its southern neighbor, already frayed by Trump’s disdain for Sheinbaum’s steadfast refusal to allow American intercession against drug cartels.
If the shipments slacken, that may portend well for the aforementioned upcoming trade negotiations.
As for Cuba, many pro-democracy voices, particularly among the South Florida diaspora hope the 66-year Castro/Diaz-Canel regime is not long for this world.
Martinez-Fernandez added the regime is likely facing one of the most difficult moments in its history; Mexico’s role aside.
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In the 1990s, Cuba lost its larger “patron,” the Soviet Union, he said, and hit a rough patch until Hugo Chavez took power in 1999.
He added that while there has been Western concern about a Chinese foothold there, Beijing appears to have largely have “cut ties” and “said there’s nothing new here.”
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“I do think that there is a likely need for additional developments before we see… That kind of next step collapse of the regime itself,” he said.
Fox News Digital reached out to the White House, Commerce Department and the Palacio Nacional for comment.
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