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Months after the 12-day war between Israel and Iran, tensions are rising again as Iran kills protesters, Israel weighs new military action, and President Donald Trump signals the U.S. could intervene.
Trump sharpened pressure on Tehran this week, threatening U.S. action if Iranian security forces violently suppress the ongoing protests that erupted after the country’s national currency collapsed.
“If Iran shoots and violently kills peaceful protesters … the United States of America will come to their rescue,” Trump said on social media, adding that the U.S. was “locked and loaded.”
But while Trump’s language suggested a readiness to use force, analysts say Washington still has options short of direct military action.
Daniel Shapiro, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel, said Washington should move quickly to expand internet access for demonstrators and prepare for potential political change.
“Support protesters with internet access and prepare now to advise and assist in a transition,” Shapiro wrote on X.
Richard Goldberg, a senior advisor at the think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies, argued that Washington has options short of direct military action.
“The two most powerful things the U.S. and close partners can do without military involvement is facilitate secure information flow to the protesters and blind the security forces,” Goldberg wrote on X, adding that while Trump has suggested a kinetic approach, non-kinetic options remain available.
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Human rights groups have reported between five and eight killings linked to the recent unrest, along with more than 30 people injured and over 100 arrested as demonstrations spread to dozens of cities across the country.
The White House did not specify what form any intervention might take. Past U.S. responses to unrest in Iran have typically been limited to sanctions and other non-kinetic measures, but Trump has recently shown a willingness to authorize direct military action, including strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, operations against ISIS in Nigeria following reports of mass killings of Christians, and actions targeting alleged narco-traffickers near Venezuela.
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Iranian officials responded sharply to Trump’s remarks, warning that U.S. involvement would risk wider regional conflict and place American forces in danger.
Ali Larijani, a senior Iranian national security official, said U.S. interference would destabilize the region and threaten American interests.
“Trump must realize that U.S. intervention in this internal matter will lead to destabilizing the entire region and destroying American interests,” Larijani wrote on X. “The American people must know that Trump is the one who started this adventure, and they should pay attention to the safety of their soldiers.”
Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament, warned that “all American bases and forces across the entire region will be legitimate targets” if the U.S. intervenes.
Iranian authorities have acknowledged legitimate economic grievances but have moved quickly to frame the unrest as foreign-instigated — a narrative hard-liners intensified following Trump’s warning.
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Human rights groups say the crackdown has been accompanied by a sharp escalation in state repression. Since the June war, between 1,500 and 2,000 people have been executed by the Iranian regime, most of them in secret, according to rights organizations monitoring the country.
The protests erupted amid soaring prices and a collapsing currency. The Iranian rial has fallen to record lows against the U.S. dollar, while inflation climbed to 42.2% in December, compounding economic pressure driven by international sanctions and years of mismanagement.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has framed the moment as existential, recently saying he considers the country to be in “total war” with the United States, Israel and Europe. He claimed Iran’s military emerged stronger following the June conflict, according to The Times of Israel.
“Our beloved military forces are doing their jobs with strength,” Pezeshkian said. “So if they want to attack, they will naturally face a more decisive response.”
While Israel has not announced new strikes, Israeli officials have made clear they view any effort by Iran to rebuild its nuclear or ballistic missile programs as a red line following the June conflict, which severely degraded Iran’s air defenses. Netanyahu reportedly broached the topic of round two strikes to take out Iranian missiles in a meeting with Trump last week.
Trump made that position explicit when asked whether he would support another Israeli attack on Iran.
“If they continue with the missiles? Yes. The nuclear? Fast. One will be, ‘Yes, absolutely’; the other will be, ‘We’ll do it immediately,’” Trump said.
Since the end of the fighting, Iranian officials and state-linked media have signaled a push to restore and expand the country’s ballistic missile capacity, even as damage from the war disrupted production sites, launch infrastructure and supply chains. Western and Israeli officials have warned that Tehran is attempting to reconstitute missile forces as quickly as possible to reestablish deterrence and signal resilience after the strikes.
Trump reiterated Washington’s position earlier this week during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, warning that Iran would face renewed strikes if it attempted to restore prohibited capabilities.
Analysts say the convergence of internal unrest and external pressure places Tehran in a volatile position, increasing the risk of miscalculation even if none of the major players is actively seeking a new war.
Despite damage to its defenses, Iran retains the ability to retaliate indirectly through missile launches or proxy attacks — tactics it has used in past confrontations to raise costs for the U.S. and Israel without triggering full-scale conflict.
U.S. defense officials have not announced changes to American force posture in the region, though U.S. troops and assets remain on heightened alert following the June war.
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The conflict severely damaged Iran’s nuclear and missile infrastructure and killed senior military commanders and nuclear scientists, while Iranian missile attacks killed 28 people in Israel. Iran’s response to subsequent U.S. strikes was limited, with missiles fired at a U.S. airbase in Qatar after advance warning was given.
That relative calm is now under strain, as Iran confronts its most serious internal unrest since the war and Trump signals a lower threshold for U.S. intervention — a combination that risks turning a fragile pause into another flashpoint.
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