Democrats eye narrow path to capture Senate majority, but one wrong move could sink them

Senate Democrats are publicly laying out their roadmap to reclaim the chamber in the 2026 midterm elections, arguing that President Donald Trump’s agenda and an expanded battleground map give them multiple paths back to the majority.

Charging that “President Trump is creating a toxic agenda that’s harming people,” Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee (DSCC) Chair Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand told Fox News Digital she’s “optimistic that we have a shot to take back the majority.”

Democrats are defending 47 seats after Senate Republicans flipped four seats in the 2024 cycle to secure a 53-47 majority. But party leaders say recent Democratic overperformances in the 2025 elections, combined with GOP-held seats now in play, have widened the map far beyond initial expectations — even as Republicans insist the political environment still favors them.

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A DSCC memo titled “Senate Democrats Carve Out Path to Senate Majority in 2026,” which was released on Wednesday, highlights that “at the start of 2025, Democrats had two clear offensive targets: Maine and North Carolina. Over the past year, the DSCC expanded the battleground map significantly and created multiple potential paths to the majority.”

Gillibrand charged that Trump “is creating this massive backlash because of his bad and hurtful and harmful agenda,” which she said “adds more to the map.”

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, the longtime party leader in the chamber, agreed, telling the Associated Press, “it’s a much wider path than the skeptics think, and a much wider path than it was three months ago and certainly a year ago.”

Gillibrand, in her interview with Fox News Digital, and the DSCC in its memo, touted the party’s top recruits for three GOP-held seats they’re working to flip: former three-term Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio, former two-term North Carolina Gov. Roy Cooper and two-term Maine Gov. Janet Mills.

And Gillibrand highlighted the DSCC’s most recent recruiting success, Monday’s landing of former Rep. Mary Peltola, who was twice elected statewide to Alaska’s at-large House seat, which could potentially put the red-leaning state in play this year.

The DSCC also has its eyes on battleground turned red state Iowa, where there’s an open GOP-held seat, and Texas, where longtime Republican Sen. John Cornyn is trying to survive a competitive and combustible primary as he seeks re-election.

But Democrats are also facing crowded Senate primaries.

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Mills is facing a formidable rival on the left in Graham Platner, an oyster farmer and military veteran who is backed by progressive champion Sen. Bernie Sanders.

There are also competitive Democratic Senate primaries in Texas, Iowa, and Michigan, where Democrats are playing defense as they aim to hold the seat held by retiring two-term Sen. Gary Peters, Gillibrand’s predecessor at the DSCC. Republicans in the Great Lakes State are mostly rallying behind former Rep. Mike Rogers, who’s making a second straight bid for the Senate.

Asked whether her party’s Senate primaries will impede success in November, a confident Gillibrand said, “I think we will have the best candidates in each one of these states.”

While the party in power — clearly the Republicans right now — traditionally faces political headwinds in the midterm elections, and with Democrats riding a wave of momentum following a slew of ballot box victories in 2025, a current read of the 2026 map indicates the GOP may be able to go on offense in some key states.

Gillibrand’s counterpart, National Republican Senatorial Committee Chair Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, told Fox News Digital last month that “54 is clearly within our grasp right now, but with a little bit of luck, 55 is on our side.”

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Asked about Scott’s aspirations to pick up one or two seats, Gillibrand quickly responded, “No chance.”

“I’m very optimistic that with the quality of candidates that we have, with the recruiting failures and the poor candidates the Republicans have, and this very harmful climate that President Trump is creating, we have all the makings of a blue wave,” Gillibrand emphasized.

NRSC’s communications director, Joanna Rodriguez, argued that the “Democrats’ battleground map is littered with failed career politicians no longer aligned with the values of their states and messy, nasty primaries that will leave Schumer with a majority of candidates that have all pledged to vote him out.”

Democrats are also playing defense in blue-leaning Minnesota, where Sen. Tina Smith is retiring, and the party faces another competitive primary, and in swing state New Hampshire, where former governor and longtime Sen. Jeanne Shaheen is retiring. 

And in Georgia, Republicans see first-term Sen. Jon Ossoff as the most vulnerable Democrat up for re-election this cycle. But a nasty three-way GOP Senate primary may hurt the Republicans’ chances of flipping the seat in the crucial southeastern battleground.

AFFORDABILITY BOOSTS DEMOCRATS AT BALLOT BOX IN 2025 AFTER INFLATION HELPED TRUMP AND GOP SOAR IN 2024

Deep concerns over inflation boosted Trump and Republicans to sweeping victories at the ballot box in 2024, as they won back the White House and Senate and kept their House majority.

But Democrats say their decisive victories in November’s elections were fueled by their laser focus on affordability.

Don’t expect any letup in Democrats’ cost-of-living messaging.

“Candidates that connect with their voters, candidates that are listening to the concerns that their constituents have, those are the candidates that win elections, and we saw Democrats do that across the board in 2025,” Gillibrand said. “Candidates that understand what people are going through are the ones that connect with voters, and that’s the kind of candidates we are marshaling in this election, and we are supporting this election.”

But Scott predicts the tide will turn for Republicans on the affordability issue.

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“I’ve said 2026 is a year of affordability, and the great news is President Trump has been producing time and time again,” the NRSC chair touted.

Pointing to the tax cut provisions in the GOP’s sweeping domestic policy measure signed into law this past summer by Trump, Scott said “2026 is shaping up to be the year where Donald Trump’s activities, his actions, the legislation we’ve passed, shows up for the American voter. And consumers all across the country will see a more affordable economy because of President Trump and the Senate majority and the House majority in the hands of the Republican Party.”