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After a dramatic week spent fretting over Greenland’s future, Europe is shifting its political focus back to the crisis that risks redefining its security architecture for generations to come: Russia’s war on Ukraine.
Europeans are hoping that the preliminary deal that convinced Donald Trump to abandon his attempt to seize Greenland through punitive tariffs will allow the two sides of the Atlantic to resume their common efforts to end the full-scale invasion, which the unprecedented row over the mineral-rich Danish territory briefly threatened to derail.
With the full-scale Russian invasion nearing the fourth-year mark, European leaders are throwing their weight firmly behind the White House’s push to strike a peace deal between Kyiv and Moscow.
American, Ukrainian and Russian officials concluded on Saturday two days of trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, which President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described as “constructive”.
“Provided there is readiness to move forward – and Ukraine is ready – further meetings will take place,” Zelenskyy said, in another sign of optimism.
Yuri Ushakov, the Kremlin’s diplomatic adviser, said the exchanges “reaffirmed that reaching a long-term settlement can’t be expected without solving the territorial issue”.
As the process gathers pace and expands in scope, European capitals have begun to seriously consider the option of reopening direct channels of communication with Russian President Vladimir Putin, which have been virtually closed off since 2022.
France’s Emmanuel Macron and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni publicly backed the change of strategy earlier this month. The European Commission, which has long insisted on diplomatic isolation, later added its voice and said dialogue could take place “at some point”.
European leaders are now discussing the idea of appointing a special envoy to engage with the Kremlin and convey a unified European position, even if no name has been put forward.
In parallel, Europeans are working closely with their American counterparts on two crucial elements that will accompany what is now a 20-point peace deal.
The first is a set of detailed security guarantees to be established right after the war comes to an end. These would include a high-tech mechanism led by the US to monitor a ceasefire across the contact line, a multinational force led by France and the UK to defend strategic positions across Ukraine, and a legally binding commitment to assist Ukraine in the event of a new Russian attack.
The guarantees have been substantially developed, but remain strictly dependent on Moscow accepting the terms of a peace deal, which is the prime question mark. For many in Europe, the Russian barrage of missiles plunging Ukrainians into blackouts at sub-zero temperatures demonstrates a glaring lack of genuine commitment.
“There is frustration about doing so much work towards peace while the partner in crime, Russia, is simply not engaging,” said a senior EU official.
Accession push
Meanwhile, Europeans and Americans are closing in on a unified document to boost Ukraine’s post-war recovery, attract foreign investors and mobilise billions in capital.
The so-called prosperity plan was expected to be signed last week during the World Economic Forum in Davos, with Zelenskyy present. But the dispute over Trump’s tariffs cancelled the ceremony and threw the timing into disarray. Nonetheless, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen presented the draft document to EU leaders when they met for their emergency summit on Thursday evening.
“We are almost done. We are actively preparing Ukraine’s future as a modern, sovereign and free country,” von der Leyen said at the end of the summit.
The Commission hopes that, following the preliminary deal that defused the Greenland tensions, the joint signature can take place in the coming weeks.
The common thread binding the security guarantees and prosperity plan together is Ukraine’s accession to the EU.
Kyiv is pushing to include a fixed date for membership in the final version of the peace deal to offset the pain of possible territorial concessions. While the current text is said to include a date of January 2027, officials and diplomats in Brussels admit this will not be feasible in practice, given that Ukraine has not yet opened one single cluster of negotiations thanks to Hungary’s unassailable veto.
The peace deal, if it is ever agreed, will inevitably prompt an overhaul of the enlargement process, which is notoriously complex and lengthy. Any reform, though, is likely to be met with reservations from some member states and criticism from other candidate countries who have been in the waiting line far longer than Ukraine.
Cyprus, the country currently holding the Council’s rotating six-month presidency, intends to advance Ukraine’s accession “when the conditions allow”, Marilena Raouna, the country’s deputy minister for European affairs, said on Monday afternoon.
“Enlargement is a merit-based process, based on progress achieved by candidates,” Raouna said. “Ukraine, despite facing Russia’s ongoing aggression, has been delivering impressive reforms under exceptionally difficult circumstances.”
Additionally, Brussels is working on a new package of EU sanctions against Russia. Approval is widely expected to be timed to coincide with the war’s anniversary, as has been tradition every 24 February since 2022.
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