Peltola widens narrow Alaska Senate lead over Sullivan as counting continues

Alaska’s still too-close-to-call Senate race is expected to deliver another batch of ballot results Tuesday night after Monday’s latest ballot drop expanded Democratic nominee Mary Peltola’s lead over incumbent Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan to 2,517 first-choice votes.

Still current as of Tuesday midday ET, Peltola stands at 48.6% (106,321 votes) to Sullivan’s 47.5% (103,804) in the ranked-choice voting system that will kick in if neither candidate gets across the 50% threshold.

The controversial race, punctuated by the “Decoy Dan” scheme exposed by The New York Times, has Republican Gerald Heikes at 2.2% (4,865) and independent Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. at 1.7% (3,651 votes). Roughly 75–76% of the expected vote is in, with tens of thousands of early, absentee and questioned ballots still to be counted.

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“After every vote is counted, it is clear that Mary Peltola will be elected Alaska’s next United States Senator,” Peltola campaign manager Cheryl Bruce wrote in a statement Tuesday morning after that past tranche of votes.

“Mary won today’s votes by a margin of 68-30, reflecting major support in key areas from Anchorage and Chevak. This overwhelming margin further strengthens Mary’s path to victory, and Mary is looking forward to continuing her relentless fight to lower costs and put Alaska first in the United States Senate after all votes are counted.”

The Monday drop added nearly 5,000 ballots and marked a shift from the razor-thin 637-vote Peltola edge that had held for days after Election Day.

The incumbent Sullivan and President Donald Trump have both suggested if Peltola does not get to 50% of the vote and ranked-choice voting (RCV) goes to rounds two or three that the Republican would absorb secondary voting strength in the system.

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Under Alaska’s system, if no candidate reaches a majority of first-choice votes, the lowest finisher is eliminated and ballots transfer according to voters’ rankings until one candidate surpasses 50%. Right now, that would be the other Dan Sullivan, which might help Peltola break 50%.

Official RCV tabulation is scheduled for Nov. 18, after the overseas absentee deadline.

The slow pace matches the timeline Gov. Mike Dunleavy described in a Sunday interview. He called the state’s process “very confusing” and “a slow system,” pointing to significant ballot dumps expected Friday, Nov. 13, and Wednesday, Nov. 18.

Dunleavy has also continued an investigation into the “Decoy Dan” candidacy of Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., which some Republicans allege was intended to siphon votes from the incumbent; the governor has said the Division of Elections and the Department of Justice are reviewing related questions.

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“We’re still in the process of bringing in votes and counting votes,” Dunleavy said Sunday. “And we are in the midst of investigations as to determine if there was any wrongdoing, especially anything that might resemble perjury or, you know, a misrepresentation of individual’s intent on how they wanted their candidacy to be placed on the ballot.”

Other statewide races remain fluid on the same ballot count:

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• Democrat Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leads the open governor’s race at 49.6% of the vote, compared to Republican Bernadette Wilson at just 28.9%.
• Rep. Nick Begich, R-Alaska, holds a clear first-choice edge at 49.19% in the U.S. House race.
• Ballot Measure 2, which would repeal open primaries and ranked-choice voting, trails with roughly 52.3% voting “no” against repeal to keep the system in place for future elections.

Certification is set for Nov. 25.

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Democrats have won control of the Senate for the final two years of President Donald Trump’s final term, holding a 54-44 edge with both Alaska and the Mississippi Senate races still too close to call. Democrat Scott Colom leads incumbent Sen. Cindy  Hyde-Smith, R-Miss., by about 2,500 votes (49.08%-48.81 %).

If Democrats win both those seats, their party would hold a 56-44 edge in the upper chamber, having gone 9-0 in seats flipped in these midterms.