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Global travel is forecast to reach a record 1.57 billion international overnight arrivals in 2026, with Europe’s arrivals expected to rise by 5% as travellers increasingly choose destinations closer to home.
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Despite conflict, higher airfares and cost-of-living constraints, international arrivals worldwide are set to increase by 2% compared with 2025, according to the WTM Global Travel Report 2026. Total visitor nights, including domestic and international travel, are expected to reach 23.9 billion. In-destination spending across both markets is forecast to rise by 9% to $7.8 trillion (€6.97 trillion).
Released on the opening day of World Travel Market (WTM) at London’s ExCeL, the report was produced by Tourism Economics, an Oxford Economics company, drawing on data covering more than 185 countries.
Three in four consumers say taking leisure trips each year remains an important priority, despite rising living costs. However, travellers are adapting where and how they holiday.
“Travellers are more active in 2026 than ever before,” said Dave Goodger, Managing Director EMEA of Tourism Economics, wrote in the report.
“Leisure travel remains a key priority in consumer budgets, even as travellers are adapting how and where they visit in response to ongoing disruption and cost-of-living pressures. The industry is on course for another record year.”
Europe benefits as travellers stay closer to home
Europe’s projected 5% increase in international overnight arrivals in 2026 puts its growth ahead of the global average, with the WTM report identifying the region as a particular beneficiary of changing travel patterns and trends.
Worldwide, trips within the same region are forecast to rise by 3% in 2026, while inter-regional journeys, including long-haul travel, decline by 3%.
Longer journeys have been particularly exposed to higher fares and safety concerns. The report points to higher oil prices pushing up inflation and travel costs, reduced capacity through Gulf aviation hubs and greater caution among travellers. The Middle East has experienced the sharpest downturn, with international arrivals forecast to fall by 40% this year.
Europe also remains the largest destination region for international leisure nights. These are forecast to increase by 4% in 2026.
Global travel growth expected to accelerate in 2027
International arrivals worldwide are forecast to grow by 8% next year, including an 11% rebound in inter-regional travel as disruption eases.
Europe’s arrivals are expected to increase by another 5%, while the Middle East is forecast to recover by 43%. That rebound would still leave Middle East arrivals below their 2025 level.
The report cautions that continuing geopolitical tensions and renewed conflict could delay the anticipated recovery.
Europe to welcome 226 million more annual arrivals by 2032
Looking further ahead, Europe is expected to record the largest absolute increase in international arrivals of any region. Annual arrivals are forecast to rise by 226 million between 2026 and 2032, with average growth of around 4% a year.
Globally, international overnight arrivals are projected to reach 2.2 billion by 2032, supported by rising incomes, continued prioritisation of travel and expanding aviation and accommodation capacity.
Holiday spending in Europe continues to grow
European leisure spending, including domestic and international visitors, is forecast to reach $2.05 trillion (€1.83 trillion) in 2026.
International leisure spending is expected to rise by 11%, while domestic leisure spending increases by 8%. These figures are measured in nominal US dollars and are not adjusted for inflation.
International visitors account for around a third of Europe’s leisure spending, the highest share among the three largest regional markets: Europe, Asia and North America.
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