Chinese military activity nearly doubles around key US ally in disputed waters

China nearly doubled the number of military and coast guard ships it sent to a key flashpoint in the South China Sea last month, according to Manila’s military.

It comes as a series of increasingly tense encounters raises the risk of confrontation with a U.S. treaty ally located in the disputed waters. The Armed Forces of the Philippines said it tracked 101 different Chinese navy and coast guard vessels around four disputed areas over the course of September, up from 56 in August and 48 in July.

The sharp increase comes as Chinese and Philippine forces have faced off both at sea and in the air, including an encounter over the weekend in which Manila accused a Chinese fighter jet of repeatedly maneuvering dangerously close to an unarmed Philippine patrol plane.

China claims sovereignty over most of the South China Sea, including waters that fall within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone, and uses coast guard ships, naval vessels and aircraft to assert those claims. Manila has continued patrolling the waters and resupplying Philippine positions, bringing forces from the two countries into repeated close contact.

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The confrontations carry particular stakes for Washington: the Philippines is a U.S. treaty ally, and the U.S. has repeatedly said its Mutual Defense Treaty with Manila applies to armed attacks on Philippine armed forces, public vessels and aircraft — including in the South China Sea.

The latest Philippine count showed the largest number of Chinese vessels around Scarborough Shoal, where 39 different Chinese coast guard and People’s Liberation Army Navy ships were observed during September.

Another 28 were tracked around Thitu Island, known in the Philippines as Pag-asa; 23 around Second Thomas Shoal; and 11 around Sabina Shoal.

Rear Adm. Roy Vincent Trinidad, an Armed Forces of the Philippines spokesperson for the West Philippine Sea, said the figures showed China’s continued “illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive” activities in the region.

But Philippine officials stopped short of concluding that the jump represented a broader shift in China’s strategy. Asked why the number had nearly doubled from August, Trinidad said the military wanted to examine a longer period before drawing conclusions about the trend.

The increase comes as the two sides have repeatedly confronted each other around some of the same contested waters.

On Saturday, a Philippine C-208 maritime patrol aircraft was flying near Scarborough Shoal when it encountered two Chinese military aircraft, according to the Philippine military.

Manila said one of the aircraft, a Chinese J-16 fighter, repeatedly approached the unarmed Philippine plane and maneuvered in front of and behind it at what the military described as an unsafe distance.

“This incident is part of a recurring pattern of unsafe and coercive behavior against Philippine government vessels and aircraft conducting lawful operations,” the Philippine military said.

The Philippine aircraft completed its mission and returned safely to base.

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Beijing offered a sharply different account, saying the Philippine aircraft had entered airspace over Huangyan Dao, China’s name for Scarborough Shoal, without permission and that Chinese forces took “necessary measures” in response.

Scarborough Shoal sits about 120 miles west of the Philippine island of Luzon and has become one of the most persistent flashpoints between Beijing and Manila. China has effectively controlled access to the shoal since a 2012 standoff, while the Philippines maintains that it falls within its exclusive economic zone.

China claims sovereignty over Scarborough and much of the South China Sea, overlapping claims by the Philippines and several other Southeast Asian nations. An international tribunal ruled in 2016 that China’s sweeping historic-rights claims in the South China Sea had no legal basis, a ruling Beijing rejects.

The encounters have continued despite a recent diplomatic thaw between Washington and Beijing, with President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping emphasizing stability in the relationship during Xi’s state visit to Washington.

Days before the latest air encounter, Chinese coast guard and naval vessels moved to block a Philippine resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal, another major flashpoint in the dispute.

The Philippines deliberately grounded the aging BRP Sierra Madre at Second Thomas in 1999 and keeps a small contingent of troops aboard the rusting ship to maintain its presence. Chinese vessels have repeatedly tried to block missions carrying food, water and other supplies to those troops.

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The latest incidents put renewed attention on Washington’s defense commitment to Manila. The two countries have been bound by their Mutual Defense Treaty since 1951, and the U.S. has said an armed attack on Philippine armed forces, aircraft or public vessels anywhere in the South China Sea would invoke U.S. obligations under the treaty.