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Moscow is preparing for a final test of a new ballistic missile capable of striking targets hundreds of miles away and potentially maneuvering in ways that could challenge Ukraine’s already strained air defenses, a defense analyst warned Monday.
The warning comes as Ukrainian military officials said that Russia could conduct the test in the coming months and potentially in live-fire strikes.
“According to our estimates, Russia plans to conduct final tests of a new type of ballistic missile with a range of up to 800 km by the end of this year,” Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy head of the Defence Intelligence of Ukraine (DIU), said at a meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Interparliamentary Council, according to Ukrainian news outlet Ukrainska Pravda.
“If, for instance, this 800-kilometer missile has more advanced maneuverability, well then that’s going to create greater problems for Ukraine in that they’re going to need the more sophisticated interceptors to get them,” Tom Karako, director of the Missile Defense Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Fox News Digital.
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“This means terminal maneuvers that weave a little bit so that the defender doesn’t quite know where it’s going or what trajectory it will have,” Karako said.
“Another possibility is that they just figured out a way to make some kind of 800-kilometer missile more cheaply or in large numbers,” the expert said of the Russians.
Karako said developments in precision-guided munitions, along with a broader shift away from unguided weaponry, could offer clues about the type of missile Russia will launch.
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“Everyone is going for increased maneuverability,” Karako explained. “Just about every gravity bomb that we have has some kind of terminal guidance for precision,” he said, specifically of the U.S. arsenal.
“In a similar way, a moment’s not too far in the future where you don’t really have that many purely ballistic missiles.”
“You have things that may be ballistic for a good part of their path, but are also equipped with maneuvering reentry vehicles or some kind of terminal end game surprises,” he warned.
Meanwhile, according to Ukraine’s DIU, Russian forces may try to strike targets in western Ukraine during the missile tests as a live-fire demonstration, which Karako said is standard practice in wartime.
“This is a business-as-usual arrangement where you might do lots of developmental testing and then formally field and then have your operational testing,” the expert said.
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“There are all kinds of norms being broken, though, because it is, after all, wartime, and so it may well be the case that some of this stuff is tested — maybe not the first time — but some of the early tests are done, frankly, in the field in Ukraine,” he added.
The missile would, however, fall into a category once prohibited under the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, Karako warned.
Signed by President Ronald Reagan and Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in 1987, the INF Treaty required the United States and the Soviet Union to eliminate ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles with ranges between 500 and 5,500 kilometers (roughly 310 to 3,400 miles).
The United States withdrew from the treaty in 2019 amid alleged Russian violations.
“This range is one that was formerly prohibited by the INF Treaty that capped ballistic and cruise missiles at 500 kilometers in range,” Karako said.
“To some extent, you see Russia filling that gap, which is understandable and reasonable. Of course, they were violating the INF Treaty, which was why the United States got out of it.”
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Missiles and artillery have been central to Russia’s campaign against Ukraine since the start of the war in 2022. Ukrainska Pravda reported Aug. 10, citing Ukrainian military intelligence, that production of Russia’s primary missile types had reached between 110% and 120% of monthly targets.
According to the Kyiv Independent, Russia fired at least 1,858 missiles of various types at Ukraine from the start of 2026 through Aug. 27.
“This is what’s hitting Ukraine on a daily and weekly basis. And so it’s in that broader context of that demand for standoffs of various kinds that you see new things pop up,” Karako said.
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy highlighted the growing strain on air defenses in an interview with Deutsche Welle at a Canadian military base in North Bay Sept. 12.
“I want to have 100-120 [interceptor missiles] for these difficult months, especially the cold months,” Zelenskyy said. “We’ll see how many months this winter lasts — that is, these cold months: one, two, three. We don’t know. This is truly a major challenge.”
“It is the case that Russia really is on a wartime footing, and they really have mobilized their defense industrial base to be cranking these (missiles) out like sausages,” Karako said.
“There was a point in which everything was going to the front, everything was going to Ukraine.”
“There have been other reports more recently that suggest that Russia may be keeping some in reserve,” Karako added.
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“There are lots of worries. If you’re in Poland, if you’re in Romania, if you’re in the Baltics, you’re worried about the Russians.”
