El Niño-related Kelvin wave headed to SoCal could bring dangerously high sea levels

We’ve heard the warnings about El Niño bringing high sea levels, but now a Kelvin wave that’s headed to Southern California could make things a lot worse very soon.

A Kelvin wave is currently moving along the coast of Mexico, and it’s expected to reach California by next month.

Kelvin waves originate far away in the Western Equatorial Pacific Ocean. They’re a foundational component of what drives El Niño and the massive amount of warming happening in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific.

Dr. Dillon Amaya, a researcher and professor at North Carolina State University, says that, along with elevated sea levels, the effects of the Kelvin wave will be long-lasting.

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“Tides that are blowing, that are coming through; there are going to be waves and winds pushing water around. But when you raise the background sea state by this much over a large area, it takes, you know, anywhere from three to six months to sort of relax back down to where it wants to be,” said Amaya.

This comes as El Niño continues to strengthen.

Scientists say stronger storms combined with higher sea levels could set communities up for a dangerous fall and winter.

“These Kelvin waves can raise sea levels above their background states by 6 to 12 inches, and obviously that’s going to increase our risk for coastal inundation or coastal flooding,” Amaya said.

Although the wave itself won’t be noticeable to swimmers or boaters, it will be if it arrives during a storm or high tide. California’s coastline could see even higher water levels as El Niño continues to strengthen.

And according to Dr. Amaya, the Kelvin wave is off the coast of Mexico right now, moving at a pretty slow speed of six mph.

It’s expected to make it to Southern California by early October.

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