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An agreement signed four days ago between the Israeli and Lebanese governments, which links Israel pulling its forces out of southern Lebanon with Hezbollah being disarmed, could effectively keep Israeli troops in the neighboring nation indefinitely, analysts say, and that could make a final peace deal between the U.S. and Iran harder to achieve.
Hezbollah has thus far refused to lay down its weapons, and the Lebanese government has proven unable to make the well-armed Iranian-backed group do so.
“This is not an agreement, it is an imposed settlement,” a senior Lebanese politician, who declined to be named, told the Reuters news agency. The lawmaker was quoted as saying Lebanon’s army is simply incapable of forcing Hezbollah to disarm.
“This agreement has put all the burden on Lebanon,” Michael Young, a Beirut-based analyst, told Reuters. It “creates a structure that allows the Israelis to remain [in southern Lebanon] indefinitely.”
Fawaz Gerges, a Lebanese scholar at the London School of Economics and Political Science, said the deal was “born dead.”
Gerges told Reuters the agreement was a “gift” to Israel as it could effectively give Israeli officials a pretext to further consolidate and even extend the occupied “security zone” that extends six miles into southern Lebanon.
The deal “won’t lead us anywhere except to civil conflict, and maybe an insurrection by the Shiite [Muslim] community,” said Young.
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Regional analyst and former Israeli military intelligence officer Danny Citrinowicz told Reuters the dismantling of Hezbollah is “something that would never happen,” and the deal ultimately legitimizes an indefinite Israeli military presence in Lebanon.
He said any Israeli prime minister is unlikely to halt the fight against Hezbollah while the group still poses a threat, so “nothing will happen. Israel won’t withdraw, and Hezbollah won’t dismantle.”
Iran and Hezbollah have both insisted repeatedly that Israel must withdraw its forces from Lebanon as part of any full peace deal between Washington and Tehran.
