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Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he approved a plan for Ukraine’s State Security Service (SBU) to launch a 40-day operation aimed at pressuring Russia to end the war.
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Zelenskyy’s announcement comes after his meeting with SBU chief Major General Yevhenii Khmara, who reported on Kyiv’s “plan for long-range sanctions, medium-range sanctions, and the results achieved by the SBU,” Zelenskyy said on X.
“For several months in a row, the SBU has demonstrated the highest performance in defending Ukraine’s positions on the front lines through the use of various types of drones,” Zelensky said on Thursday evening.
Following his statement, Moscow-installed occupation authorities in Crimea announced a regional state of emergency on Friday.
What is this operation about?
With all of Ukraine’s military planning remaining strictly confidential, Zelenskyy did not provide additional details on what this operation would entail.
He did praise the SBU for its recent success in “hitting personnel and equipment of the occupying forces.”
Mentioning the mid- and long-range “sanction” — a term used by Kyiv to describe its drone strikes into Russia and Moscow-occupied territories — also reads as a hint for what is coming.
Over the past several weeks, Ukrainian forces have dealt a series of blows to Russia’s logistics, energy infrastructure, and sense of “safety of deep rear” by launching strikes against Crimea and Moscow.
Crimea and Moscow likely to remain priority
Back-to-back drone strikes on the Russian capital — the most protected part of the country — shut down the Moscow Oil Refinery, worsening a fuel crisis across the country and bringing the war home to the Russian population, who have been living in relative peace for over four years of Moscow’s all-out invasion of Ukraine.
Right after the announcement on Thursday evening, Moscow authorities reported about dozens of drones launched by Kyiv towards the Russian capital.
Over the past few days, Ukraine’s military intelligence also reported that Ukraine’s long-range strike campaign forced Russia to redeploy air defence systems to protect what seems to be the prioritised sites: Moscow and the illegally built Kerch Bridge, weakening coverage in other Russian regions and occupied territories.
”In practice, these are the two areas the Russians have been ordered to defend at the expense of weakening other sectors of their territory and the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine,” Zelenskyy said.
‘Hell is beginning’ for Russian troops in Crimea, Kyiv said
The regional state of emergency in occupied Crimea came a just days after Ukrainian forces hit a railway bridge across the North Crimean Canal, fuel facilities, and military infrastructure across occupied Crimea.
Widespread power outages in Crimea have left approximately half of the peninsula without electricity.
Ukraine’s mid-strike campaign — which generally includes attacks within 20 to 200km — has already choked the logistics in Russia-occupied Crimea, cutting off Moscow’s supply routes for its troops in the occupied territories of Ukraine.
Kyiv plans to fully isolate the peninsula, cutting it off from Moscow while destroying critical infrastructure — ultimately putting Russian troops there under siege.
“Hell is beginning,” Ukrainian Defence Minister Mykhailo Fedorov said on 17 June. “Logistics are being cut off. Crimea is being isolated.”
Kyiv’s campaign is already in full force on the annexed peninsula. Crimea is experiencing severe fuel shortages, with many Russian tourists heading home in panic.
Belarus factor
Zelenskyy also issued yet another warning to Belarus over Minsk’s “potential expansion of aggression” against Ukraine, saying that the placement of military infrastructure along the Belarus-Ukraine border was nearly done.
“The construction of road infrastructure and storage bases for ammunition and fuel and lubricants is nearing completion,” Zelenskyy said after receiving a briefing from Ukraine’s Foreign Intelligence Service.
“These facilities have no purpose other than a military one.”
On Monday, Belarus’ exiled opposition handed Kyiv a list of warning signs that Minsk soon plans to enter Russia’s war against Ukraine, outlining how Aliaksandr Lukashenka is shifting his policies towards a wartime posture.
The latest warning from Zelenskyy comes a day after Lukashenka appeared to accept Kyiv’s ultimatum to remove communications equipment on Belarus territory that Ukraine says was helping support Russian drone strikes.
Kyiv warned that Belarus would face unspecified action from Ukraine if the equipment was not removed.
Over the past several months, Ukraine has been sounding an alarm that Moscow, Minsk’s closest ally, may be attempting to draw Belarus deeper into its confrontation with Kyiv in an attempt to aid in the Kremlin’s war effort.
Belarus served as a launch pad for Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and has since deepened its military alliance with Moscow.
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