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The NBA Finals wrapped up only a week or so ago, and we are already looking at the next year. That’s mostly because tonight is the NBA Draft. This is one of my favorite days of the sports calendar year. I love the NBA, I love college basketball as well, and tonight is where the worlds collide. This gives all the teams a chance to bolster their rosters and potentially get a piece that transforms their team. It also gives us a chance to bet and make some money.
The Obvious Picks
The first three picks, most likely in this order, are going to be AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson and Cameron Boozer. Dybantsa will end up with the Wizards as the first overall pick. There is no value in betting him at -700, and the US-based books won’t let you parlay him with other picks (or really any parlays for that matter). However, there might still be some value in betting Peterson at -250 to be the No. 2 overall pick. The reason is that if Dybantsa was not in this draft, Peterson would be the first pick of the draft.
Cameron Boozer is a very good player, but there are a lot of questions about how talented he will be as a professional. The rumor is that he will end up with the Grizzlies at third. His father, Carlos Boozer, used to play for the Jazz, so if anyone slips to second, it could be him. However, Peterson is regarded as the better player and more likely choice.
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Caleb Wilson from North Carolina is going to go to the Bulls as well. Those top four picks are pretty much set. If any of these four guys are not in the top four, it would be Boozer, in my opinion.
What To Bet
I really like Keaton Wagler under 7.5 for his draft position. There are two teams that have talked extensively about Wagler – one is the Clippers at fifth. The other is the Nets at sixth. Most reports say Wagler is a better fit for the Clippers if they keep the pick. If they do trade it, who exactly is a team trading up to draft? There are not three better players in the draft than Wagler. He is -290 to be drafted seventh or lower, so it’s very pricey, but this should be -600 or higher, or maybe the line should be closer to 6.5. To be really clear, I’m not telling you this is a great bet. -290 is not exactly a steal, but there is significant value at this number still.
Aday Mara is now rumored to go to Dallas, which owns the No. 9 pick. It makes some sense given that they could use a center and their new coach is Dusty May, who coached Mara in college. Outside of them taking him, there really are not many teams that I see reaching for him. I’d lean to the over 9.5 just in case Dallas chooses a different direction. It seems like he will go ninth or potentially much later, so there isn’t a reason to take the under unless you think he is going to Dallas for sure.
No. 15 Yaxel Lendeborg +1000. I’m not sure he will still be there, but the Bulls are rumored to be very interested in Lendeborg. He fits their team fairly well. He can shoot, he can drive, he can rebound, and he can defend. The problem is he doesn’t do any of those at an elite level. I can see him falling, but this would be an ideal spot and there is rumored interest, so it is a decent risk to take.
Darius Acuff is one of the more polarizing players. There is no disputing his scoring prowess. However, there are a lot of good guards in this draft — Peterson, Acuff, Wagler, Mikel Brown, Brayden Burries. Acuff is one who has had a good college coach (John Calipari), known for getting a lot of great NBA talent. His height is going to be an issue, but Jalen Brunson just won the Finals MVP. At -120 for him to go seventh exactly, I don’t think it is a great bet, but if you see him at over 7.5, I’d take that. He is rumored to go to the Kings, and he would be a decent fit, especially considering the team has no point guard. However, if one of those guards I mentioned earlier is available (aside from maybe Burries), I think they will go over Acuff.
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For the night, there aren’t a ton of great opportunities. In terms of value, Wagler at -290 under 7.5 is my favorite (he is at -450 at Caesars Sportsbook). In terms of opportunity, Lendeborg at #15 is good money; he is also over 13.5 at Caesars. I’d also take Mara over 9.5. Acuff is listed at over 6.5 -115 on Caesars; I’d take that. Shop around, because numbers are drastically different.
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