How is long COVID impacting the EU’s economy?

Long COVID could cost between €58.54 billion ($68 billion) and €115.3 billion ($135 billion) annually across OECD countries, including 21 EU member states, in the next decade, according to recent findings.

Beyond its profound effects on individual health and daily living, long COVID also weighs heavily on a country’s health system and national economy.

Projections to 2035 show that, under optimistic assumptions, GDP losses may fall to negligible levels, whereas more realistic scenarios predict persistent annual losses of 0.1% and 0.2% of GDP.

These latter figures are comparable to the entire annual health budget of the Netherlands or Spain.

According to the report, the direct healthcare costs for tackling the disease will remain high until at least 2035, at around €9.5 billion a year.

Yet, the condition is likely to have wide‑reaching consequences that are not yet fully understood.

Beyond the core symptoms of long COVID, infection with the SARS‑CoV‑2 virus increases the risk of developing a range of chronic conditions — including cardiovascular conditions, diabetes, neurological impairments and autoimmune disorders — which will add further pressure on health systems and increase costs in the years ahead.

The report warns that these effects may take considerable time to become fully visible.

In addition, long COVID may affect children’s development and educational attainment — factors not yet captured in current economic projections.

What is long COVID?

Long COVID continues to affect millions of people worldwide. While less than 1% of the population of EU and OECD countries is expected to suffer from it over the next 10 years, around 75 million people had the illness in 2021.

Long COVID can harm nearly every organ system, provoking symptoms like brain fog, fatigue and general pain.

In 2021, parts of Eastern and Central Europe were the most affected by the disease.

This year, approximately 1.1 million people in Bulgaria, 1.4 million people in Hungary and 1.2 million people in Czechia were living with long COVID.

Reintegration into the workforce

Patients with long COVID are dropping out of the workforce, absent or less productive at work because of ill health, five years after the pandemic began.

Studies show that long COVID leads to employment disruption in around one in five affected workers.

Only Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg, and the Netherlands have structured plans that outline the main steps in the care of patients with a specific clinical problem.

Strengthening diagnosis, treatment and health care for patients with long COVID, as well as social welfare support, are vital to improve patients’ health and to support their reintegration into the workforce and to reduce economic losses, the report stated.

For instance, research from the UK found that flexibility at work is key for long COVID support, with recommendations including flexible working hours, working from home, and developing a supportive workplace culture.

Other conditions show how much long COVID could cost

If the socio-economic impact of long COVID is compared with other major chronic conditions, such as the national burden of multiple sclerosis, it would cost France about €2.7 billion and Italy about €4.8 billion a year, according to the OECD report.

Meanwhile, if the estimated losses were compared with the economic burden of stroke, the cost to Europe would be around €60 billion.

“However, while chronic conditions such as stroke and multiple sclerosis generate most of their costs through healthcare spending and informal care, the continuing burden of long COVID arises mainly from reduced labour participation and productivity losses, reflecting a broader macroeconomic impact rather than medical expenditure alone,” the study said.

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