GOP overperforms in Virginia special election, fueling early momentum talk in blue-trending state

A Republican running in a Virginia special election significantly outperformed expectations Tuesday night, sparking chatter on social media that Republicans could have momentum in the blue-trending state where Democratic Gov. Abigail Spanberger has faced backlash for her progressive agenda since taking office. 

In the race to replace Republican Virginia House District 98 Delegate Barry Knight, who died of cancer last month, Andrew Rice defeated Democrat Cheryl Smith by 25 points in a climate where voters in the commonwealth have been turning to Democrats in recent elections.

Conservatives on social media were quick to point out that Rice, who, despite holding onto a Republican seat, outperformed the candidate for Republican governor, Winsome Earle-Sears, in November and outperformed President Donald Trump’s 2024 total by 10 points, sparking belief in possible GOP momentum and backlash toward Spanberger.

“Republican Andrew Rice is currently ahead +29 in a district that was Sears +7 in November,” conservative commentator Greg Price posted on X. “A 22 point swing to the GOP.”

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“Radical Dems are overreaching in Virginia & voters have noticed,” Republican Virginia House of Delegates member Tim Griffin posted on X. “Big REPUBLICAN WIN in Virginia tonight, congrats Delegate-Elect Rice!”

“The momentum is REAL, and Virginians are paying attention and are fed up with the progressive liberal agenda trying to take over our Commonwealth,” Virginia Rep. Jen Kiggans posted on X.

“Whoa!” Kerry Dougherty, co-host of a Virginia Beach radio show and longtime journalist, posted on X. “This is a red district but looks like backlash against our insane governor and the left-wing nuts in the General Assembly. Congratulations to Andrew Rice. A determined prosecutor (which will make the lefties crazy).”

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Also at play is what Virginia elections analyst Sam Shirazi called the “elephant in the room” on his “Federal Fallout” podcast.

“I think one explanation of what happened is the Republicans are fired up, and they’re upset about the redistricting referendum,” Shirzi said about Rice’s victory and a possible connection to an April referendum that would trigger a mid-cycle redrawing of the state’s congressional map to heavily favor Democrats.

“Potentially, they could also be generally upset at what’s been going on in Richmond since the Democrats took over in January. So, perhaps they’re upset with some of the bills that have been passed.”

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Reacting to Rice’s victory, Republican Virginia Delegate Karen Hamilton posted on X, “If we could get some funds, we can win this redistricting fight in Virginia and secure the midterms for @POTUS.”

“Republicans in Virginia are overperforming so strongly that the gerrymander attempt is suddenly looking much riskier for Dems,” conservative commentator and writer Ben Braddock posted on X. 

Spanberger has faced some intense criticism from conservatives since taking office in January, particularly over the allegation she campaigned as a “moderate” candidate but quickly began implementing a radical agenda as soon as she took office.

Since taking office, Spanberger has ended state cooperation with ICE, reduced mandatory minimum sentencing, raised taxes and prioritized DEI in government contracts, Fox News Digital reported in January.

Fox News Digital reached out to Spanberger’s office for comment. 

Fox News Digital’s Alec Schemmel contributed to this report.