The notorious cartel leader “El Mencho” is dead. What does the future hold for the powerful CJNG?

Violence swept across Mexico Sunday after the leader of the powerful Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), who had a $15 million U.S. bounty on his head, was killed in a military shootout.

A U.S. defense official told CBS News the U.S. military played a role in the operation to take out Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes — also known as “El Mencho” — via the Joint Interagency Task Force-Counter Cartel, which regularly works with the Mexican military through the U.S. Northern Command. The official emphasized that “this was a Mexican military operation, so the success is theirs.”

News of the death of “El Mencho” triggered cartel members across the country to block roads, torch vehicles and businesses and send fearful residents into hiding.

Here is a look at the sprawling power of CJNG and its future without “El Mencho” at the helm.

What is CJNG?

Oseguera is a founding member of CJNG, which was formed in 2009 and has grown into one of the most violent drug cartels in Mexico, ahead of the Sinaloa cartel.  He helped co-found the Jalisco New Generation Cartel with Érick Valencia Salazar, alias “El 85,” who was among 29 wanted cartel leaders taken into U.S. custody last February, according to the Justice Department.

The U.S. State Department said that the cartel has the “highest cocaine, heroin, and methamphetamine trafficking capacity in Mexico,” and over the past few years, has started to funnel fentanyl into the United States.

“It is certainly one of the most powerful organizations in Mexico in terms of military capacity, recruitment capability and weaponry,” David Mora, an expert at the Crisis Group analysis center, told AFP.

Apart from drug trafficking, the CJNG’s operation expanded into other criminal enterprises such as extortion, fuel theft and human trafficking, the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) reported.

The CJNG is characterized by its “constant willingness to challenge the Mexican government,” Mora said.

In a show of power, the cartel frequently releases images of its members showing off weapons and armored vehicles.

In 2020, the cartel was accused of the attempted assassination of Mexico’s public security secretary Omar Garcia Harfuch, who at the time was serving as police chief in the capital.

Last year, it was also accused of killing Uruapan mayor Carlos Manzo, a known crusader against organized crime in Mexico.

Manzo’s death sparked two days of youth-led demonstrations in November, with protesters setting fire to public buildings and clashing with police, resulting in over 100 injuries.

Why did the cartel react so violently?

The reaction that followed Oseguera’s death reflects the cartel’s far-reaching power in Mexico, experts said.

The killing of the powerful drug lord triggered several hours of roadblocks with burning vehicles in Jalisco and other states. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, on social media, acknowledged the roadblocks but stressed, “In the vast majority of the national territory, activities are proceeding with complete normality.”

Violence gripped the resort city of Puerto Vallarta, the state of Michoacan near the capital, and the states of Puebla, Guanajuato in central Mexico, Sinaloa in the northwest and south into Guerrero.

“What we saw today is just a demonstration of the places where (the cartel) operate and where they can spread violence,” Mora said.

The U.S. State Department released a security alert advising American citizens in several Mexican states, including Jalisco, Tamaulipas, Michoacan, Guerrero and Nuevo Leon, to shelter in place until further notice. The Department of State Consular Affairs, in a message telling U.S. citizens to continue sheltering in place, said on social media that taxi and rideshare service had been suspended in Puerto Vallarta.  

Security analyst Gerardo Rodriguez told AFP that authorities had anticipated a reaction, but did not expect such a “national reach.”

Oseguera was wounded in a clash with soldiers in the town of Tapalpa, in Jalisco state, and died while being flown to Mexico City, the military said in a statement.

“In operational tactical terms, it is a very successful operation by the government,” Rodriguez said.

What is the future of the cartel?

Oseguera is one of the biggest Mexican drug lords to be taken down since the capture of the founders of the Sinaloa cartel,  Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman and Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada. Both are now serving time in the United States.

Oseguera was “the number one priority for DEA and frankly for federal law enforcement in the United States,” Matthew Donahue, the DEA’s top agent in Mexico, told CBS News in 2019.

Mike Vigil, former DEA Chief of International Operations, told CBS News that the military operation was “one of the most significant actions undertaken in the history of drug trafficking.”

“Because we’re talking about someone that is almost at the same level as “El Chapo” Guzman and “El Mayo” Zambada,” he added. “(Oseguera) is one of the biggest drug capos in the history of drug trafficking around the globe.”

Meanwhile, Ruben “El Menchito” Oseguera Gonzalez, 35, Oseguera’s son, was convicted by a federal jury in Washington in September of multiple drug trafficking and firearms charges.

Mora said that “in the absence of a direct succession, a power vacuum is created that opens the door to violent realignments within the organization.”

It was the weakening of the Sinaloa cartel, for example, that led to CJNG’s rise in prominence, experts noted.

The United States has classified CJNG as a terrorist organization and accuses it of sending cocaine, heroin, methamphetamine and fentanyl into the United States.

It’s not clear who will succeed Oseguera Cervantes, or if any one person can.

The Jalisco cartel has a presence in at least 21 of Mexico’s 32 states and is active in almost all of the United States, according to the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration. But it is also a global organization and the loss of its leader could be felt well beyond Mexico.

“El Mencho controlled everything, he was like a country’s dictator,” Vigil said.

His absence could slow the cartel’s rapid growth and expansion and leave it initially weakened against the Sinaloa cartel on several fronts where they or their proxies are fighting. The Sinaloa is locked in its own internal power struggle, however, between the sons of “El Chapo” and the faction loyal to Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada, who is in U.S. custody.

Vigil said Mexico should seize the moment to launch “an effective frontal assault based on intelligence.”

“This is a big opportunity for Mexico and the United States if they work together,” he said.