Weather 
Groundhog Day is here, and Punxsutawney Phil will soon emerge from his burrow to declare whether he’s seen his shadow.
Thousands of people gather at Gobbler’s Knob every year on Feb. 2 to watch Phil make his big prediction. The tradition, which dates back to 1887, draws crowds out to the small town of Punxsutawney, about 80 miles from Pittsburgh.
When does Punxsutawney Phil come out?
The festivities start streaming live from Gobbler’s Knob on Monday, Feb. 2, at 6 a.m. Once it starts, you can watch it in a video player below. While the celebration starts before dawn, Phil won’t make an appearance until the sun starts to show.
If Phil sees his shadow, he interprets it as six more weeks of bad weather and he returns to his hole. If he doesn’t see his shadow, he believes it’s a sign of spring and he stays above ground.
Phil predicted more winter last year. His all-time record consists of 107 predictions of more winter and 21 calls for an early spring.
What is Groundhog Day?
Groundhog Day has roots in the Christian religious holiday of Candlemas Day, which, according to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club, became tied to weather prognostication through an old folk song.
But the song didn’t mention an animal. That came later when the Germans started using a hedgehog. According to German lore, if the hedgehog saw his shadow on Candlemas Day, there would be a “second winter,” meaning six more weeks of bad weather.
When the Germans came to the United States, so did their traditions and folklore. And since they couldn’t find any hedgehogs, they had to pick a new hibernating animal.
That’s where Phil comes in.
Groundhog Day first appeared in Punxsutawney’s local paper in 1886. After that, the first official trek was made to Gobbler’s Knob. The rest is history.
Phil is managed by the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club’s Inner Circle. The tuxedoed men in the tophats are tasked with handling Phil as well as protecting his legacy. The club maintains that Phil is a 150-year-old groundhog who stays immortal by drinking the elixir of life. And, of course, he’s always right, all the time.
How often is Punxsutawney Phil right?
Despite the Inner Circle’s claims, NOAA says Punxutawney Phil is correct about one-third of the time. Tallying up Phil’s predictions from 2015 to 2024, the agency says Phil’s accuracy was 30%.
NOAA even goes so far as to suggest that while Phil may be the country’s most famous prognosticating critter, when compared to 19 other contemporaries, he’s actually the 17th most accurate.
New York’s Staten Island Chuck and Georgia’s General Beauregard Lee take the top two spots. Lander Lil, who isn’t even a groundhog but a prairie dog statue in Wyoming, comes in third.
Phil is even beaten out by some taxidermied groundhogs, like Poor Richard in York, Pennsylvania, and Schnogadahl Sammi in Kresgeville, Pennsylvania. Still, judging by the crowds that gather in Punxsutawney every year on Feb. 2, Phil is perhaps the most beloved.
