The Speaker’s Lobby: What Congress’ December script means for healthcare next year

This December on Capitol Hill appears to follow a familiar script.

There’s a deadline for Congress to act on (insert issue here). And if lawmakers don’t move by January 1, then (insert consequence here). So, everyone on Capitol Hill clamors over pathways to finish (given issue). Lawmakers and staff are at the end of their wits. Everyone is worried about Congress successfully fixing the problem and getting everyone home for the holidays.

There’s always the concern that Congress will emerge as The Grinch, pilfering Whoville of Christmas toys.

But lawmakers often wind up toiling with the diligence and efficiency of Santa’s elves, plowing through late night, overnight and weekend sessions – usually finishing (insert issue here) in the St. Nick of time.

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This pattern is always the same. With few variations.

This parliamentary dance of the sugar plum fairies frequently centers on deadlines for government funding, the debt ceiling and tax policy. Such was the case when the Senate passed the first version of Obamacare on Christmas Eve morning, 2009. Republicans skated on thin ice to finish their tax reform package in December 2017.

Lawmakers moved expeditiously to approve a defense policy bill in late 2020. Then made sure they had just enough time on the calendar to override President Trump’s veto of the legislation before the very end of the 116th Congress in early January 2021.

The deadlines sometimes veer into the political. There was a crush to finish articles of impeachment on the House floor for both Presidents Clinton and Trump in December 1998 and December 2019, respectively.

And so after everyone got this fall’s government shutdown worked out of their systems, lawmakers were far from prepared to address its root cause. Democrats refused to fund the government unless Congress addressed spiking healthcare premiums. Those premiums shoot up on January 1. And no one has built enough consensus to pass a bill before the end of the year.

Yet.

But it’s only mid-December. And everyone knows that the Congressional Christmas legislative spirit can be slow to take hold. Some of that holiday magic may have officially arrived Thursday afternoon after the Senate incinerated competing Republican and Democratic healthcare plans.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., pushed a three-year extension of the current Obamacare subsidies – with no built-in reforms.

“This is going to require that Democrats come off a position they know is an untenable one and sit down in a serious way and work with Republicans,” said Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., of the Democratic proposal.

Thune characterized the Democrats’ gambit as “a political messaging exercise.”

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Republicans even mulled not putting forth a healthcare plan at all. It was the group of Senate Democrats who ultimately helped break a filibuster to re-open the government last month that demanded a healthcare-related vote (not a fix, but a vote) in December. So that’s all Thune would commit to.

“If Republicans just vote no on a Democrat proposal, we’ll let the premiums go up and Republicans don’t offer anything, what message is that going to send?” asked Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo. “I know what people in Missouri will think. They’ll look at that and they’ll say, ‘Well, you guys don’t do anything. You’ve just let my premiums go up.’”

It may yet come to that.

So there’s a holiday healthcare affordability crisis.

“People are looking now at exactly what’s ahead for them and they’re very, very frightened,” said Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee.

But most Senate Republicans coalesced around a plan drafted by Senate Finance Committee Chairman Michael Crapo, R-Idaho, and Senate Health Committee Chairman Bill Cassidy, R-La. The bill would not renew Obamacare subsidies. Instead, it would allow people to deposit money into a healthcare savings account – shop around for coverage.

“Our plan will reduce premiums by 1 percent and save taxpayers money,” boasted Crapo. “In contrast, the Democrats’ temporary COVID bonuses do not lower costs or premiums at all.”

With skyrocketing prices, Republicans are desperate to do something – even if it’s a figgy pudding leaf – as they face competitive races next year.

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“It has nothing to do with me. It has everything to do with people in Ohio and across America who need to be able to afford access to healthcare,” said Sen. Jon Husted, R-Ohio.

Gov. Mike DeWine, R-Ohio, appointed Husted to succeed Vice President Vance after he left the Senate. So 2026 will be Husted’s first time on the ballot for the Senate.

There was some chatter that Republicans might allow for a limited extension of the Obamacare aid – so long as Democrats agreed to abortion restrictions in exchange.

“Off the table. They know it damn well,” thundered Schumer.

So the competing plans needed 60 yeas to clear a procedural hurdle. But that also meant that both plans were destined to fail – without solving the problem before the end of the year.

“We have to have something viable to vote on before we get out of here,” lamented Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C.

That’s why some Christmas congressional calendar magic often compels lawmakers to find a last-minute solution.

“Every legislator up here would like to be home for Christmas,” said Sen. Roger Marshall, R-Kan. “That pressure is what forces us to come together.”

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We’ll know soon if everyone buckles down to harness soaring premiums after days of political posturing.

“This should have been done in July or August. So we are up against a deadline,” said Hawley.

And procrastination by lawmakers may yet do them in.

“Healthcare is unbelievably complicated,” said Rep. Dusty Johnson, R-S.D. “You’re not going to reform it and bring down costs overnight.”

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., is now promising a separate, still unwritten healthcare bill for the floor in the coming days.

“You’re going to see a package come together that will be on the floor next week that will actually reduce premiums for 100% of Americans,” said Johnson.

But it’s unclear if Congress can pass anything.

“I think there’s a fear of working with Democrats. There’s a fear to taking action without the blessing of the President,” said Rep. Susie Lee, D-Nev.

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That’s why it’s possible Congress could skip town for the holidays without solving the problem.

“It will be used like a sledgehammer on us a year from now,” said Rep. Don Bacon, R-Neb.

Not a great message for Republicans – especially on affordability – before the midterms.

“If there’s no vote, that’ll run contrary to what the majority of the House wants and what the vast majority of the American people want,” said Rep. Kevin Kiley, R-Calif.

That political concern may be just enough to force the sides to find some Christmas magic and address the issue before the holidays.

That’s one Yuletide script in Congress.

But there’s a script to not fixing things, too.

If Congress leaves town, every communications director on Capitol Hill will author a press release accusing the other side of channeling Ebenezer Scrooge, declaring “Bah humbug!,” or dumping a lump of coal in the stockings of voters on Christmas.

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That’s the script.

And every year, it sleighs me.