Germany warns Russia could attack NATO by 2029 as intelligence threat assessments mount

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul warned Tuesday that new intelligence assessments show Moscow is preparing for the option of a future attack against a NATO member, marking it the third time this month that senior German officials have raised alarms about a potential confrontation with Russia in the next 4 years.

“Putin eyes the EU and NATO. Our intelligence services are issuing urgent warnings: at the very least, Russia is creating the option for itself to wage war against NATO by 2029. We have to deter further Russian aggression, together with our partners and allies,” the official German foreign ministry X account stated.

“These divisions, without a doubt, have their sights set on us, on the European Union, on NATO. The threat to our country from Russia is no longer a distant concern; it is already a reality,” he said.

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In an interview with Fox News Digital, retired Gen. Philip Breedlove, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander Europe, said he agreed with the severity of the German assessments. “I believe there is a lot of truth in what the foreign minister is saying. Russia’s intent for Eastern Europe is very clear.”

Breedlove noted that many observers have forgotten Russia’s early signals before the full-scale invasion. “At the beginning of this large-scale invasion phase, Russia gave us two documents. They call them treaties. We never acknowledged them. We continued to call them documents… Essentially, Mr. Putin said, ‘Sign these or there will be other means…’ And we did not sign them. And we learned what ‘or else’ meant. And he came crashing into Ukraine for the third time. First was in Crimea. Second was in the Donbas, and now the third time in multiple axes.”

Breedlove said Putin’s ambitions extend far beyond Ukraine. “If you read those two documents, if you actually read them and I did multiple times, his intention is for all of Eastern Europe… he’s going to rearrange the security architecture of Eastern Europe back to a Cold War status where he controls all those buffer countries and has this buffer between him and NATO.”

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Asked whether Russia could be ready to attempt such a move within five years, Breedlove said that depends on how quickly Moscow can rebuild its degraded forces. “Ukraine has smashed his army, his army west of the Urals is deeply damaged… Is he able to rebuild this army? Is he able to hold the loyalty of the Russian people who are soon going to learn that their sons and husbands are not coming home?” 

He warned that Putin will have to confront the consequences of massive wartime losses. “The conservative estimates are 1.1 to 1.5 million people… During the first part of this war more than 11 years ago, when people didn’t come home, the moms of Moscow stood up. And I think that Mr. Putin is going to have to face that yet.”

The German foreign minister’s warning follows separate comments from Germany’s Defense Minister Boris Pistorius, who told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung that a war between Russia and NATO “could begin in 2029,” and that some analysts believe it could happen as early as 2028. The remarks were reported by Meduza.

Top military commanders have delivered similar assessments. Lt. Gen. Alexander Sollfrank, head of Germany’s joint operations command, told Reuters that Russia could launch on NATO territory “at any time.” He added that a larger assault could become possible by 2029 if rearmament continues.

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The warnings come as the United States pushes forward with a proposed Russia-Ukraine peace deal. President Donald Trump said Tuesday he will not meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin or Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy until the agreement is complete or in its final stage.

In a Truth Social post, Trump said “tremendous progress” had been made and that only “a few remaining points of disagreement” remain in the updated peace plan. A U.S. official told Fox News Digital that Ukraine has agreed to the revised framework, while Moscow is reviewing the latest changes.

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The negotiations continued despite a major overnight Russian strike on Kyiv that killed at least seven people and damaged power infrastructure.

Fox News Digital’s Emma Bussey contributed to this report.