Tropical Storm Rafael forms in the Caribbean and could hit Cuba as a hurricane

SAN JUAN, Puerto Rico — Tropical Storm Rafael formed Monday in the Caribbean and will bring heavy rain to Jamaica and the Cayman Islands before strengthening into a hurricane and likely hitting Cuba, forecasters said.

Later in the week it also is expected to bring heavy rainfall to Florida and portions of the U.S. Southeast, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami.

A tropical storm warning was in effect for Jamaica, and a hurricane watch was in effect for the Cayman Islands and for parts of Cuba including the provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth. A tropical storm watch was issued for Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, Ciego de Avila, Camaguey, and Las Tunas in Cuba.

A tropical storm watch also was issued for the lower and middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, and for the Dry Tortugas.

The storm was located about 150 miles (245 kilometers) south of Kingston, Jamaica. It had maximum sustained winds of 45 mph (75 kph) while moving north-northwest at 9 mph (15 kph), the center said.

The storm was expected to move near Jamaica late Monday, be near or over the Cayman Islands late Tuesday as a hurricane and approach Cuba on Wednesday.

Most forecasts show the storm peaking as a Category 1 hurricane, “but conditions over the next few days will favor strengthening so we’ll need to monitor how quickly it organizes, and a stronger hurricane can’t be ruled out,” wrote Michael Lowry, hurricane specialist and storm surge expert, in an analysis Monday.

On Monday morning, the government of the Cayman Islands offered people sandbags and announced schools would close on Tuesday.

“Residents are urged to take immediate precautions to protect themselves and their properties,” the government said in a statement.

Schools in Jamaica also were scheduled to close on Tuesday, with government offices closing on Monday afternoon.

Cuban authorities said Monday night that some 37,000 people remained under evacuation orders in far eastern Cuba, in the province of Guantanamo, due to bad weather.

The latest development comes on the heels of Tropical Storm Oscar, which dumped heavy rains in Cuba in October, leaving eight people dead and a widespread blackout across the island due to a collapse of the national energy system.

Meanwhile, the Jamaica Observer newspaper reported a large landslide in a rural area north of the Kingston capital on Sunday that officials blamed on persistent rains ahead of the potential storm. No injuries were reported, but a couple of communities were left isolated.

Heavy rainfall will affect the western Caribbean with totals of 3 to 6 inches (7 to 15 centimeters) and up to 9 inches (23 cm) expected locally in Jamaica and parts of Cuba. Flooding and mudslides are possible.

Rafael is the 17th named storm of the season.

On the opposite side of the Atlantic Ocean, Tropical Storm Patty dissipated.