The U.S. labor market continued to defy expectations in April, with employers surpassing economists’ forecasts and adding 115,000 jobs nationwide.
By the numbers
Economists predicted payroll gains of 65,000 in April, according to a consensus forecast from FactSet.
The unemployment rate, which has hovered above 4% since June 2024, held steady at 4.3%.
Health care and transportation/warehousing companies led job growth in April, adding 37,000 and 30,000 jobs, respectively. Federal employment fell by 9,000.
The report follows a strong March report, when employers added a revised 185,000 jobs, according to the Labor Department.
The Labor Department said Friday that it also revised February’s already weak reading down by 23,000, bringing the total number of jobs lost that month to 156,000.
From February to April, employers added an average of 48,000 jobs per month, down slightly from 61,000 over the previous three months. That pace of job growth is sufficient to keep the nation’s unemployment rate stable, according to Thomas Ryan, North America economist at Capital Economics.
What the experts say
Hiring has picked up while layoffs remain relatively subdued, with little evidence so far that the Iran war is affecting the labor market.
“The addition of 115,000 jobs in April continues to highlight the resilience of the U.S. labor market,” said Jerry Tempelman, vice president of economic and fixed income research at Mutual of America Capital Management, in an email. “In spite of higher gas prices, we’ve seen minimal disruptions to the U.S. economy due to the conflict in the Middle East. In fact, the equity markets continue to trade at or near new highs.”
But, Tempelman added, “This may change, as the impact of higher oil prices and other key commodities, such as fertilizer, drives up costs and may ultimately slow down economic growth.”
According to data this week from outplacement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas, employers have cut around 300,000 jobs so far this year, about half the number from the same period a year ago.
In April, about one in four companies cited artificial intelligence as the reason for layoffs, a growing trend as businesses seek to speed up workflows and cut costs.
With the latest employment report showing signs of improvement in the labor market, Angelo Kourkafas, senior strategist at Edward Jones, said the Federal Reserve will likely hold off on interest rate cuts as policymakers assess the impact of surging energy costs from the Iran war.
The central bank cuts rates to stimulate the economy, but that can reignite inflation, especially when commodity prices like oil surge or supply chains are disrupted. With inflation still running hot, the Fed has held its benchmark rate steady this year.
In March, inflation rose at an annual rate of 3.3%, mainly due to higher gasoline costs. Prices at the pump have risen more than $1.50 a gallon since the Middle East conflict began in late February, straining household budgets.
