The tech billionaire’s comments online have caused Germany’s government to claim he was ‘interfering’ in the country’s upcoming elections – but it’s unclear yet if his efforts would have a substantial impact on the vote’s outcome.
South African-born tech billionaire Elon Musk caused a stir in the German political establishment shortly before Christmas when he boldly claimed “only the AfD can save Germany” — right at the start of a tense election campaign to select the country’s new government.
Despite rebukes from German politicians — some of whom compared Musk to Russian President Vladimir Putin — the owner of X, Tesla and SpaceX doubled down on his comments and published an op-ed supporting the party in the country’s Welt am Sontag newspaper.
Several weeks later, he hosted a live discussion on X with the far-right AfD’s candidate for chancellor, Alice Weidel.
The AfD, or Alternative for Germany, is officially classified as a suspected extremist organisation in Germany. Other parties have traditionally shunned it due to their member’s extreme views and association with neo-Nazi organisations.
The decision to publish Musk’s op-ed sparked fierce debate within Germany, with critics arguing it was a step closer to normalising a party that for years has been deemed too extreme to work with, even among Europe’s other far-right groups with which it is more ideologically aligned.
Despite this, others say that Musk’s contributions might not translate into more votes for the AfD in Germany’s elections on 23 February.
A recent Forsa poll suggested that, although the AfD is polling over 20%, voting intention has been steady since the start of 2024. The poll shows the AfD is actually several percentage points lower — at 19% — than it was at the same time last year.
Is Musk allowed to promote the AfD?
Musk’s comments provoked a backlash and even a response from the German Chancellor himself, who told Stern magazine, “Don’t feed the troll” as Musk directed a barrage of insults at the leader.
In another speech, the government said that Musk’s comments amounted to “election interference”.
However, it’s unclear whether Musk’s promotion of the AfD could be considered interference — at least not in a way in which legal action could be brought against him. Outwardly, unless his statements involved insults, slander, or incitement to hatred, he would be protected by freedom of expression.
The situation becomes more complex if Musk or the company he owns, X, actively advertises the AfD. According to legal expert Aurel Eschmann from NGO Lobby Control, the live space hosted between Musk and Weidel could count as an illegal party donation.
“It’s not the interview itself that would be an illegal party donation, otherwise many media formats would be a party donation, but the reach that the platform gives as you can buy boosts there for your own posts,” Eschmann told Euronews.
“Musk is not just a user who has many followers on X, he is the owner of the platform. There is alot of evidence his posts are artificially gaining reach for all users on the platform, even those who don’t follow him.”
Data from the Bundesdatenschau, a team of data scientists that tracks the number of impressions on X posts, shows that Weidel’s average post has reached 1 million impressions in the last two weeks — an enormous increase from her average impressions for the last twelve months, which were under 200,000.
If Musk’s live space for the AfD would be considered an illegal party donation under German law, the Bundestag would be required to investigate, according to Eschmann.
Advertisements for the party could also include deliberately manipulating the algorithm to favour the AfD’s posts, yet Musk himself has repeatedly denied that the algorithm is manipulated to promote content that he favours.
However, a study from the Queensland University of Technology indicates that his own posts during the US election saw a sudden increase in views and engagement.
As part of European officials assessing the legality of Musk’s contributions on the platform, his conversation with Weidel on X has also been included in an ongoing probe launched by the European Commission into the platform on whether the discussion violates the EU’s Digital Services Act.
Could Musk make a financial donation to the AfD?
Musk funnelled millions into US President-elect Donald Trump’s campaign through his super Political Action Committee (PAC). However, German law would prevent Musk from making a substantial financial donation to the AfD, as donations to German parties from outside the EU are limited to a maximum of 1,000, a spokesperson from the Interior Ministry confirmed to Euronews.
On top of this, parties in Germany must report single donations exceeding €50,000 to the president of the German Bundestag. High campaign donations such as those in the US are unusual in Germany: the AfD has not received a single official donation of over €35,000 in its history.
However, if Musk was motivated to financially donate to the AfD, he could find a loophole by donating to an association or a “Verein,” which is allowed to collect donations over time and give them to political parties directly or through advertising, Eschmann said.
“There are more opaque ‘Verein’ constructions he could use, Tesla Germany might be an option. You would have to take a closer look to see if that wouldn’t be possible. It just shows the German system is not prepared or set up for this kind of influence,” Eschmann explained.
The AfD has also been previously accused, alongside other political parties, of raising funds through shadowy means.
This included allegedly benefiting from an illegal €6 million advertising campaign between 2016 and 2018 via a shell company in Switzerland, which paid for “several thousand posters,” among other advertisements for the party.
Could he influence voters?
Musk has 211.4 million followers on X and the ability to reach people across the world with his opinions. Experts imagine that he could have some impact online by tapping into voters who are dissatisfied with the current German government; however, it’s currently too early to tell.
”Musk could have some impact because there is a general kind of dissatisfaction in Germany with the lack of digitalisation, bureaucracy, the economic crisis,” Philipp David Darius, a postdoctoral researcher at the Centre for Digital Governance, said.
“I imagine he could have some impact on legitimising the AfD’s opinions to those who are more liberal leaning. Perhaps some people would see him as having this entrepreneurial charisma.”
More critical in shifting public opinion in Germany, Darius said, is Musk’s influence on tech entrepreneurs such as Mark Zuckerberg, who recently announced he was rolling back on fact-checkers on his Meta platforms in favour of a community notes style system practised on X.
A 2023 study by public broadcaster ARD showed that only 8% of Germans use X daily, with most Germans favouring Instagram (35%) and Facebook (33%), both owned by Meta.
“Less content moderation on X and other platforms could have implications for what content is visible to voters. Additionally, the amplification of misinformation and negative content about rival parties such as the Greens could have repercussions for their voter support, even if it doesn’t gain the AfD more votes,” Darius said.
Recent polling doesn’t indicate that Musk has won the AfD a vast influx of new votes, at least not yet.
“It’s very difficult to draw causal connections between people reading something online and changing their opinion,” Matthias Kettemann from the Humboldt Institute for Internet and Society said.
“If you look at the AfD’s results in the last election, I don’t think voters of the AfD would need Musk to certify the validity of their opinions, although it certainly doesn’t hurt them that he approves of them.”
More wide-reaching in Germany itself, Kettemann explained, was the decision by Welt to publish an op-ed with Musk and the subsequent fall-out. “I think that the actions of Elon Musk contribute to a polarisation of the political discourse.”
“The fact that Musk is trying to influence the political process is already influencing it simply through this feeling that we might not be able to trust how X regulates content around the election,” he told Euronews.
Musk often justifies his comments online as an act of free speech. Kettemann pointed out that there are differences in the US and European contexts regarding what is allowed under the right to freedom of speech, which is called freedom of expression in European law.
“There are limits to that freedom of speech, especially the European context. If you look at the European Convention on Human Rights there is the freedom of expression but that freedom of expression can be limited through laws that relate to securing a different societal value such as the rights of others or public health or democracy,” Kettemann explained.
“Every individual has the right to free speech, but that also comes with responsibilities. Especially when you are a powerful actor.”
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