During his “My Take,” Monday, “Varney & Co.” host Stuart Varney forecasted what will happen to the U.S. stock market the day after the 2024 election if a Trump red wave sweeps the White House, or if there’s a Harris blue wave, and everything in between.
STUART VARNEY: What happens to the stock market on Wednesday assuming we get a clear election result.
Remember back in 2016 when Trump pulled off a surprise win? The market quickly rallied.
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What about this time around? I’m going to stick my neck out and make some predictions.
If there’s a giant red wave, and Trump sweeps the White House and Congress, the market should rally sharply.
Investors will be worried about tariffs, but tax cuts and deregulation are music to Wall Street’s ears.
If there’s a blue wave and Harris sweeps, forget about it. Expect a selloff. Tax hikes on individuals and businesses are absolutely not music to Wall Street’s ears.
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Then it gets complicated. If Trump wins the White House, but Democrats take the Senate and the House, divided government, there may still be a stock rally.
Trump would get at least some of his programs through.
If he gets the White House and the Senate, the rally stands because he could squash anything radical coming from the House.
Now let’s turn it around. Harris takes the White House, but the Republicans take Congress. Not good for stocks.
Modest selloff. She would probably be able to negotiate some of her tax and spend programs. If she took the White House and the Senate, much worse. Look out below.
Let’s boil this down. The more power Trump accumulates, the better the stock markets’ performance.
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However, if it’s a disputed election, with court challenges that prevent an early resolution, all bets are off.
If there’s one thing markets don’t like, it is uncertainty.
I’m hoping that when we go on the air on Wednesday morning, there will be a clear decision, and a clear direction for the market.
Fingers crossed.
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