German intelligence chief Bruno Kahl says that Moscow’s acts of sabotage against Western targets could spur NATO to invoke Article 5 defence clause.
Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics against the West could eventually lead to NATO invoking the alliance’s mutual defence clause, Germany’s intelligence chief has warned.
Bruno Kahl, the head of the German Federal Intelligence Service (BND), said on Wednesday that he expected Russia to increase its hybrid attacks, which can range from physical acts of sabotage such as arson to cyber attacks and disinformation campaigns.
“The extensive use of hybrid measures by Russia increases the risk that NATO will eventually consider invoking its Article 5 mutual defence clause,” Kahl said at an event at the DGAP think tank in Berlin. Article 5 is a political commitment by all NATO member countries to come to the aid of any member whose sovereignty or territory is attacked.
“At the same time, the increasing ramp up of the Russian military potential means a direct military confrontation with NATO becomes one possible option for the Kremlin,” he added.
Kahl said an analysis by German intelligence suggests that Russian defence ministry chiefs doubt whether Article 5 would in fact be invoked in case of an attack on a member.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte warned earlier this month that Moscow was conducting “an intensifying campaign of hybrid attacks” on Western targets, and said the frontline of Russia’s war in Ukraine had extended to the Baltic region and across Europe.
Two underwater communications cables running between Germany and Finland in the Baltic Sea were cut last week. German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius said it appeared to be an act of sabotage and a “hybrid action”, although the culprit was unknown.
There have also been several arson attacks across Europe in recent months, and an uptick in cyber attacks in the bloc, with Russian actors believed to be responsible. The Kremlin has repeatedly denied responsibility for such incidents.
Kahl said Russia’s army would likely be capable of attacking NATO by 2030, but that if it were to strike one or several members, it would not do so in order to seize territory. Instead, Moscow would look to weaken Western unity and NATO as an alliance, he said.
“You don’t need to send tank armies westwards, it is enough to dispatch little green men to the Baltics to protect allegedly threatened Russian minorities or adjust borders on Svalbard,” Kahl said.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), a global security think tank, said this week that Western governments have limited coordinated means to defend against more frequent and less covert hybrid operations by Moscow.
“As long as NATO and European member states disagree on how to respond more assertively to the Kremlin’s hybrid warfare, Europe will remain vulnerable,” wrote Charlie Edwards, a senior advisor at the IISS.
On the sidelines of a NATO summit in July, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said that Russia was “attacking us [European nations] every day” with hybrid warfare tactics.
“I think we have to take it much more seriously … we’re simply being too polite,” she said.
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