Since Donald Trump’s reelection, claims have circulated on social media that the US will be pushed out of NATO if it fails to support Ukraine against the Russian invasion.
A claim on social media network Threads alleges that Mark Rutte, secretary-general of NATO, has threatened to expel the US from the alliance if president-elect Donald Trump “surrenders Ukraine to [Russian President Vladimir] Putin”.
The fear that a Trump victory in November’s US presidential election could lead to reduced support for Ukraine — or even surrender to the Russian invasion — has long been a concern for NATO and the wider European continent.
Throughout his presidential campaign and even before, Trump was a vocal critic of the support the US was sending to Kyiv and consistently claimed he could quickly end the war once in office, which many have interpreted as him pressuring Ukraine to give up the territory that Russia has occupied in exchange for peace.
Nevertheless, Trump is not yet in power so the current situation has not changed, and there’s no evidence that Rutte has said anything about expelling the US from NATO, even if Trump does decide to reduce support.
NATO does not have a specific mechanism to suspend or expel a member. Countries can voluntarily leave by invoking Article 13 of the treaty.
If anything, all of Rutte’s public statements about Trump since the US presidential election have referred to them working closely together.
Immediately following the election result, which saw Trump triumph over Kamala Harris to win a second term in office, Rutte took to X to say that he had congratulated the incoming president on his victory.
“His leadership will again be key to keeping our Alliance strong,” the former Dutch prime minister said, adding he looked forward to working with him again.
A day later, he posted again on X saying more or less the same, noting that this time he’d personally congratulated Trump.
NATO’s website also contains a longer official statement from Rutte.
In the statement, he reminds Trump that “through NATO, the US has 31 friends and allies who help to advance US interests, multiply American power and keep Americans safe”.
“President-elect Trump demonstrated strong US leadership throughout his first term in office — a term that turned the tide on European defence spending, improved transatlantic burden sharing, and strengthened Alliance capabilities,” Rutte said.
He also said that Trump will see a “stronger, larger, more united alliance” when he takes office again on 20 January, noting that two-thirds of NATO now spend at least 2% of their GDP on defence and that defence spending and production are on an upward trajectory across the alliance.
Trump repeatedly blasted NATO allies last time he was president for not meeting the 2% defence spending target and even suggested raising it to 4%.
As of June this year, out of the 32 NATO members, Croatia, Portugal, Italy, Canada, Belgium, Luxembourg, Slovenia and Spain were the countries not meeting the 2% commitment, according to the most recent figures.
Poland, Estonia and the US were the biggest spenders, sitting at 4.12%, 3.43% and 3.38% respectively.
At a European Political Community (EPC) summit in Budapest earlier in November, Rutte actually credited Trump for NATO’s move towards higher defence spending.
“When he was president he was the one in NATO who stimulated us to move over the 2% and now also thanks to him, in NATO, if you take out the numbers of the US for a moment, is above the 2% and I think very much that is his doing, his success, and we need to do more,” Rutte told journalists.
Russian victory threatens US as much as Europe
For good measure, NATO itself has denied that Rutte ever threatened to expel the US. A spokesperson told EuroVerify that it was a “bogus” claim.
Nevertheless, Rutte and other NATO leaders seem keen to stress to Trump that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a danger to the US too, following the president-elect’s comments during the campaign that he would withdraw support for Kyiv.
In response to questions from journalists at the EPC summit, Rutte said that any Russian success in Ukraine would not just threaten Europe, but the US too.
“Collectively, we have to work not only the threat of Russia, but also the fact that these four countries [China, Iran, North Korea and Russia] work together and that now, very soon, we will see that also the US itself is under threat from these newest technological developments, thanks to Russia giving its latest insights and technology to the North Koreans,” he said.
What has Trump previously said about NATO, Russia and Ukraine?
The worry about Trump’s lack of commitment to Ukraine stems from his previous incendiary comments about Kyiv and NATO, in addition to his apparent admiration for Putin.
He has mocked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s supposed ability to secure US funds, called NATO “obsolete” and has suggested he would not help if Russia tried to invade other NATO allies.
“Every time Zelenskyy comes to the United States he walks away with $100 billion, I think he’s the greatest salesman on Earth,” Trump said during a campaign event in the state of Georgia.
In reality, the US has given around $60 billion (€57 billion) in military assistance to Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022.
At another event at the beginning of the year, the president-elect said that he told “one of the presidents of a big [NATO] country” last time he was in office that he would not protect them if they weren’t paying their way and Russia attacked.
“In fact, I would encourage them [Russia] to do whatever the hell they want,” Trump said. “You got to pay. You got to pay your bills.”
In February 2022, Trump praised Putin as a “genius” and “savvy” for the way he launched the invasion.
However, the Wall Street Journal reported that Trump rang Putin shortly after his reelection to warn him against escalating the war. The Kremlin denies that this call took place.
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